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dauss
post Aug 14 2009, 08:28 AM
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Unfortunately I'm not smart enough to know what will happen to the market or economy. In fact, no one in the world is smart enough to know that. Analysts that do have a consensus about economic numbers don't get it right, and they do that for a living. I do this as a hobby.

So, the economy has further down to go, this is what I think will happen.
Unemployment will hit at least 10%.
Foreclosures will continue to rise.
Next quarter, more companies will post losses than this past quarter.
Home prices will continue to fall.


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impala454
post Aug 14 2009, 01:32 PM
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QUOTE (dauss @ Aug 14 2009, 09:28 AM) *
Unemployment will hit at least 10%.

Way to really stretch out there... considering it was at like 9.7% already... I don't see how another 0.3% unemployment increase would cause some "correction" (wtf do you mean by correction anyways?) in the economy.

QUOTE (dauss @ Aug 14 2009, 09:28 AM) *
Foreclosures will continue to rise.

This is not a quantity. See last statement. Can't have housing prices properly even out without this occuring.

QUOTE (dauss @ Aug 14 2009, 09:28 AM) *
Next quarter, more companies will post losses than this past quarter.

This is not a quantity. How much more general can you get, geez. Quantity of companies which post a loss doesn't mean anything. Joe Bob's internet startup might post a loss, but do you think their loss matters more than some other company's? Uh, yeah.

QUOTE (dauss @ Aug 14 2009, 09:28 AM) *
Home prices will continue to fall.

This is not a quantity. IMHO this is still a good thing. Housing prices were out of whack for a long, long time. It was stupid for people to be paying half a million dollars for a 2 bedroom shack in one place, where in another place that same house would go for fifty thousand. It's a correction, that, combined with low interest rates is making housing more affordable, which is good for the economy.
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dauss
post Aug 14 2009, 04:02 PM
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QUOTE (impala454 @ Aug 14 2009, 01:32 PM) *
Way to really stretch out there... considering it was at like 9.7% already... I don't see how another 0.3% unemployment increase would cause some "correction" (wtf do you mean by correction anyways?) in the economy.

Was 9.5%, now 9.4%.

QUOTE (impala454 @ Aug 14 2009, 01:32 PM) *
wtf do you mean by correction anyways?

QUOTE (dauss @ Jul 23 2009, 11:08 PM) *
I still believe there is a correction coming. We almost had one if it dropped 10%

Fairly general term of the correction of an index. Just google "market correction" and read the first result.

QUOTE (impala454 @ Aug 14 2009, 01:32 PM) *
This is not a quantity. See last statement.

Read my statement. You want a quantity, well, there isn't one. No one in the entire world can quantify how XXX economy reading is going to be posted, . You should get a hold of RealtyTrac and see if they can quantify how many foreclosures there will be next month. They won't be able to because they don't know.

You want me to tell the future? Guess what, I can't.
QUOTE (dauss @ May 15 2009, 01:38 PM) *
This is what I believe and I can't predict the future

If I could, I wouldn't be working. Here's a shocker, you can't tell the future either.

I have no desire for the stock markets to tank. Especially if the Dow hits 10k, I'll be going on a 5 week tour of South America and the Galapagos Islands.

With the how the economy is doing overall, the stock markets are rebounding after a horrific tumble. Though volatility has dropped, two phases of fear have dominated the market in the last 12 months. The first was the fear of losing it all, and then dumping your positions. Now the fear is missing out on all the gains and increasing your positions in the market. Today is a good example, the American consumer and their sentiment will need to improve before the economy improves, especially if 2/3 of our GDP is consumer spending.

So, years from now when I look back on the markets, and they didn't test the bottom we saw in March 2009, well then, that is wonderful news and I was wrong. However, if the opposite happened, I'll probably ask you how your humble pie is tasting.


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impala454
post Aug 14 2009, 10:35 PM
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QUOTE (dauss @ Aug 14 2009, 05:02 PM) *
Was 9.5%, now 9.4%.

I said it was at 9.7% already. That fact is not in question.... not sure what you're crying about here.

QUOTE (dauss @ Aug 14 2009, 05:02 PM) *
Fairly general term of the correction of an index. Just google "market correction" and read the first result.

I know what a market correction is, but you had decided to ignore the stock market since its numbers weren't matching your doom & gloom theory.

QUOTE (dauss @ Aug 14 2009, 05:02 PM) *
Read my statement. You want a quantity, well, there isn't one. No one in the entire world can quantify how XXX economy reading is going to be posted,

Ding, motherfucking ding! You walked right into that one... You seem adamant about what the economy as a whole is going to do, and yet there is no way to quantify it! So how in the world can you prove it other than the "feelings" you're getting, or by looking at large, significant financial systems like the US stock market?

QUOTE (dauss @ Aug 14 2009, 05:02 PM) *
You want me to tell the future? Guess what, I can't.

If I could, I wouldn't be working. Here's a shocker, you can't tell the future either.

No, I don't want you to tell the future, and I didn't claim I could either. I just asked you for what you thought was going to happen.

QUOTE (dauss @ Aug 14 2009, 05:02 PM) *
I have no desire for the stock markets to tank. Especially if the Dow hits 10k, I'll be going on a 5 week tour of South America and the Galapagos Islands.

Whoopty do sounds like you're mr important or something... laugh.gif Gonna have some umbrella cocktails and with your pinkie raised while you're there?

QUOTE (dauss @ Aug 14 2009, 05:02 PM) *
With the how the economy is doing overall, the stock markets are rebounding after a horrific tumble. Though volatility has dropped, two phases of fear have dominated the market in the last 12 months. The first was the fear of losing it all, and then dumping your positions. Now the fear is missing out on all the gains and increasing your positions in the market. Today is a good example, the American consumer and their sentiment will need to improve before the economy improves, especially if 2/3 of our GDP is consumer spending.

Where does/did all of this fear come from? Media. And now the media is preaching that the economy is improving... shocker, not all that long into Obama's term... hmm...

QUOTE (dauss @ Aug 14 2009, 05:02 PM) *
So, years from now when I look back on the markets, and they didn't test the bottom we saw in March 2009, well then, that is wonderful news and I was wrong. However, if the opposite happened, I'll probably ask you how your humble pie is tasting.

Oooh... I see how it is... you brush off the market numbers when they don't fit with your idea, but then if they tank you'll be ready to come back and serve me my humble pie... rolleyes.gif are you a staunch democrat now or something?
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woody
post Aug 14 2009, 10:49 PM
Post #20





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QUOTE
i'm gay


i never said you weren't gay. don't know what you're whining about there

QUOTE
i'm not an idiot


just google "what is an idiot" and read the first entry

QUOTE
why are we quoting everything


well if i could predict the future i wouldn't have to quote what you said in the past


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dauss
post Aug 17 2009, 08:45 PM
Post #21





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QUOTE (impala454 @ Aug 14 2009, 10:35 PM) *
No, I don't want you to tell the future, and I didn't claim I could either. I just asked you for what you thought was going to happen.

And I fucking told you.

If I make the statement "I think the New York Yankees will win the 2009 MLB World Series". You would disagree with me, just because that's you. So if they lose tonight againt Oakland, perhaps you'd say something like "Well they just lost that game, you still think they're going to win the fucking World Series?". Guess what, I'm not wrong. Just because they haven't won yet doesn't mean that you are right. With what I think will happen to the markets has an unknown time horizon, and only time will tell who is right.


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impala454
post Aug 17 2009, 10:21 PM
Post #22





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Ugh it's like trying to talk to a five year old. You guys have these presumptions about everything I say, I don't understand it sometimes. Maybe if I make some smaller short answers you can see what I'm saying:

-You said "I can't tell the future, guess what you can't either, blah blah blah." I said I wasn't asking you to and that I wasn't claiming I could, and that all I asked was for what you thought and why. (note, I didn't accuse you of not telling me what you think, so your "I fucking told you" was not warranted). An incorrect implication on your part.

-It's silly of you to think I am saying you're wrong about something that hasn't happened yet. Making some analogy to baseball doesn't make it make any more sense. What I think you're wrong about is your reasoning for your prediction, not the future outcome. Does that make sense?
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impala454
post Oct 14 2009, 04:40 PM
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Dow over 10k today... still waitin for that rock bottom Dauss? lol

tongue.gif
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Psykopath
post Oct 15 2009, 12:28 AM
Post #24


Live like a warrior.


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lol

I wish I had bought more shares of Ford when it was down around $2.
It's at $7.66 now.


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chook
post Oct 15 2009, 05:30 AM
Post #25


Oh baby bring me down
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Well, you can say that if you had 100 dollars last year and you didn't invest in indexes, you would have 100 dollars today.

If you inventes the money, you would have a little bit over 71 bucks today.


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impala454
post Oct 15 2009, 03:07 PM
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And that's why you invest long term and don't short sell on stocks.
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chook
post Oct 16 2009, 03:41 AM
Post #27


Oh baby bring me down
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QUOTE (impala454 @ Oct 15 2009, 02:07 PM) *
And that's why you invest long term and don't short sell on stocks.

Yes, I haven't pulled out anything yet, and invested alot in April. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you are fucked.


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impala454
post Oct 17 2009, 02:14 AM
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Yeah... risky shit... oh well. That's how it goes... still... at our age... better than boring ass mutual funds.
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impala454
post Oct 29 2009, 01:52 PM
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Oooh... and the recession is over... Dauss nowhere to be found... shocker!

HAH!



bitches
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chook
post Dec 31 2009, 12:55 AM
Post #30


Oh baby bring me down
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I am gonna throw in my 5k in my roth on the first of the year. Anyone got some good stocks?


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