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impala454
post Jul 23 2009, 11:51 AM
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Seem to be doing pretty well lately. Dow broke 9,000 today. Lookin pretty good and starting to seem like this will end up being one of the shorter recessions, albeit probably one of the most hyped.
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THECHICKEN
post Jul 23 2009, 01:31 PM
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wasn't it intel or ibm that started the swing back up?


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blaarg
post Jul 23 2009, 01:56 PM
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What are stocks?


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impala454
post Jul 23 2009, 02:32 PM
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QUOTE (THECHICKEN @ Jul 23 2009, 02:31 PM) *
wasn't it intel or ibm that started the swing back up?

it's mostly the housing market starting to recover and employment numbers being better than the forecast. of course, the housing market will do a complete 180 and it will be the highest prices and interest rates in years as soon as I'm ready to buy again mad.gif
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Hartmann
post Jul 23 2009, 02:33 PM
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QUOTE (impala454 @ Jul 23 2009, 03:32 PM) *
it's mostly the housing market starting to recover and employment numbers being better than the forecast. of course, the housing market will do a complete 180 and it will be the highest prices and interest rates in years as soon as I'm ready to buy again mad.gif


It was quite a shock for me to read that housing prices in Houston have actually increased over the past year.


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impala454
post Jul 23 2009, 03:23 PM
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yeah and are at some of the highest levels they've been at in years. though I think the reasoning is the Houston area has had a huge influx of people from higher cost of living areas like california and the northeast.
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dauss
post Jul 23 2009, 11:08 PM
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So what? There has been a big jump in the last 7 trading days. What about the previous 28 trading days before July 10th when the markets stalled and the major market indexes lost about 7%? From the "Parallels between Dow and Japan" thread, I still believe there is a correction coming. We almost had one if it dropped 10%, but with the earnings season being unofficially being kicked off last week with Alcoa, there seems to be optomism. However, though companies are posting profits, there has been little to no revenue growth. The earnings results are skewed anyways. Analysts have slashed forecasts , and remember how aggresive the layoffs were at the beginning of this year? They were slashing a ridiculous amount of jobs, and these profits the companies are posting aren't from sales, they're from extremely aggresive cost cutting measures.

Ford, says they made profit because of their debt reduction, but would have lost money if it didn't happen.
Citigroup says they made profit because of their sale of Smith Barney, but would have posted a loss otherwise.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase posted profit because they took risky bets on the market, but their losses from defaults keep rising. If the market doesn't add on another huge gain over next quarter, these guys will probably lose money.
Morgan Stanley who weren't as aggresive as GS or JPM posted a loss.
CIT Group nearly went bankrupt because they were almost going to be insolvent and possibly bringing down hundreds of thousands of businesses because their request for TARP money was denied. Luckily a $3 billion deal with bondholders allowed them to continue to operate.


Small example, but none of these are showing signs of recovery. It's easy to beat analyst forecasts when the bar has been set so low.

That being said, I have been over 90% liquid for many months now. I still see the the current price of the market as unsustainable, and see a correction coming. However, with the stalled market from all of June to the first week and a half of July, I saw it fit to slowly enter the market again. I'm not picking out specific stocks now, because it is still too risky, but sticking with ETFs for now. On July 9th, I bought some QQQQ, the Powershares QQQ ETF that follows the Nasdaq.
Obviously I can't show you all of it, but:
Symbol, description of security, shares bought, current price, current value, day change($0.00 because it's past midnight), cost basis, Gain/loss(unrealized).

Not bad for 10 trading days.

Fine, current home sales are up, because they're dirt cheap, 30 yr mortgage has fallen some, foreclosures are still on the rise, and the tax credits to buy a house probably played a role, but that seems to be the big news for July 23. Jobless claims numbers are still skewed from the Chyrsler and GM bankruptcy, so although it has been dropping for the past few weeks, we'll likely to see new jobless claims rise back up to 600k+ once the seasonal adjustments catch up. Microsoft, American Express, and Amazon.com have posted some poor results, that are way off of analyst estimates. We'll see how the consumer sentiment index(consensus is a drop) and other relevant news(if any) will be able to buoy the markets tomorrow after getting poor results from those 3 giants.


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impala454
post Jul 24 2009, 08:42 AM
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Dauss I'm sorry but your continued doom and gloom is silly. You're picking out tiny trends and not looking at the big picture. Wow you found a 28 day 7% downswing. You seem to be forgetting about the five month, 38% upswing. It went over 8,000 over three months ago and hasn't dropped under that since. You're citing all of these individual companies that really make little impact on the overall market. Those companies already made their small hit to the market many moons ago. It's real estate and the credit market that got us into this mess and they're the ones getting us out of it. Banks' profit numbers don't mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Their profits do not provide some direct correlation to their lending habits.

Jobless claims skewed from Chrysler and GM still?? No, those numbers were included in the forecast. You remind me of the people who post on the google finance stock forums who think that some stock will go up because X company is releasing a new product that particular day. If that was the case I'd be a billionaire right now. Every last one of these things you cited were all built into every single economic forecast out there. Hell there was even supposed to be a big loss today because of minimum wage but that has not even made the market flinch yet (though it is early in the day).

I'm not sure why your negativity of the market is continued on here, even when the numbers are staring you right in the face. Perhaps you just don't want to look like you were wrong, I dunno. But even the media is starting to jump off the market doom and gloom wagon. What kind of numbers would you expect to see to change your tune and admit that the market is recovering?
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The Fanatic
post Jul 24 2009, 10:34 AM
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impala454
post Jul 24 2009, 11:14 AM
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QUOTE (Seeker @ Jul 24 2009, 11:30 AM) *
Some asshat from the Fed actually admitted on CNN that they were building a new smaller bubble on top of the original bubble just to make it look like the economy is recovering for a short time... but both bubbles will eventually pop and the damage will be even worse since it didn't pop earlier. Same thing that happened before the Great Depression, look it up!

what the hell does that even mean? "building a bubble"?
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Mommy
post Jul 24 2009, 03:50 PM
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Actually it had to do with Ford reporting a pretty hefty accounting profit for this past quarter. That's what started the 188 point upswing in the Dow yesterday. I don't think stocks will dip really low again, at least below 8,000; but I don't think we are out of the housing market woes yet. The stock market is still pretty volatile, meaning there will be days of big gains and days of big losses. There are still a lot of foreclosures in progress, but they are slowing. Let's hope the housing market can recover quickly. That will put our economy back on a more stable track.
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dauss
post Jul 24 2009, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE (impala454 @ Jul 24 2009, 08:42 AM) *
Dauss I'm sorry but your continued doom and gloom is silly. You're picking out tiny trends and not looking at the big picture. Wow you found a 28 day 7% downswing. You seem to be forgetting about the five month, 38% upswing. It went over 8,000 over three months ago and hasn't dropped under that since. You're citing all of these individual companies that really make little impact on the overall market. Those companies already made their small hit to the market many moons ago. It's real estate and the credit market that got us into this mess and they're the ones getting us out of it. Banks' profit numbers don't mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Their profits do not provide some direct correlation to their lending habits.

So I guess "Seem to be doing pretty well lately. Dow broke 9,000 today." is a long term trend?

QUOTE (impala454 @ Jul 24 2009, 08:42 AM) *
What kind of numbers would you expect to see to change your tune and admit that the market is recovering?

I would need good news, not news that is "less bad".


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impala454
post Aug 7 2009, 04:53 PM
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QUOTE (dauss @ Jul 24 2009, 11:24 PM) *
So I guess "Seem to be doing pretty well lately. Dow broke 9,000 today." is a long term trend?

Obviously, saying something that happened today was not me referring to a long term trend. The three months over 8k (now 3.5 months) and the five month, now 43% upswing, where the long term trends I was referring to.

QUOTE (dauss @ Jul 24 2009, 11:24 PM) *
I would need good news, not news that is "less bad".

Mind explaining to me how things can go from "bad" to "good" without going through the "less bad" step?

Today unemployment numbers came out well (decreased) and stocks finished up nice and strong.

What happened to all the doom and gloom? Or is it all still yet to come? Still a subscriber dauss? rolleyes.gif laugh.gif
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dauss
post Aug 13 2009, 08:42 PM
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Unfortunately things haven't gone from "less bad" to good. It's gone from "bad" to "less bad" to “bad" to "less bad". I still see no signs of consistent improvement. In the past, the recovery of the economy lags behind what the stock market does, so it could be on its way to recovery.

So, with the Fed's pronouncement yesterday that the recession is winding down and that they would keep the interest rates unchanged, the markets yesterday posted large gains. Today, however, retail sales were expected to rise 0.8%. In fact it fell 0.1%. Even with bigger pay checks from the stimulus money and the cash for clunkers program, people are still holding back purchases. Walmart, even though they beat expectations, their sales and revenues fell in the last quarter. They were still profitable, which they attribued to cost cutting. Also today's release from RealtyTrac Inc. showed that 360,149 properties received a default or auction notice or were seized last month. The 3rd record set in 5 months. Fine, unemployment is down 0.1%, but it isn't because of hiring, but people giving up the search for jobs. Today the release this week's unemployment numbers. An unexpected rise in initial unemployment claims isn't "less bad" but actually worsened over last week. A drop in people receiving unemployment benefits doesn't mean that companies are hiring, but that their benefits are expiring. There is good news overseas though, Germany and France appears to have come out of the recession, posting a 0.3% gain in GDP this quarter.

I think the economy has further down to go, whether that is reflected in the stock markets is unknown.


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impala454
post Aug 13 2009, 10:51 PM
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Oh ok, I see, ignore the numbers or say "the economy lags behind them" when they don't fit your doom & gloom idea. A few posts back you were arguing about the market until you were blue in the face. I'm sure though that you're quoting some arbitrary number of properties defaulting (newsflash: that's been happening for 8 months) has much more to do with the state of the economy.

What in the world do you mean by "I think the economy has further down to go"?? Quantify this for me please so I can understand where you're coming from.
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