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dauss
Posted on: Aug 17 2009, 08:45 PM





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QUOTE (impala454 @ Aug 14 2009, 10:35 PM) *
No, I don't want you to tell the future, and I didn't claim I could either. I just asked you for what you thought was going to happen.

And I fucking told you.

If I make the statement "I think the New York Yankees will win the 2009 MLB World Series". You would disagree with me, just because that's you. So if they lose tonight againt Oakland, perhaps you'd say something like "Well they just lost that game, you still think they're going to win the fucking World Series?". Guess what, I'm not wrong. Just because they haven't won yet doesn't mean that you are right. With what I think will happen to the markets has an unknown time horizon, and only time will tell who is right.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #131249 · Replies: 31 · Views: 40,137

dauss
Posted on: Aug 14 2009, 04:02 PM





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QUOTE (impala454 @ Aug 14 2009, 01:32 PM) *
Way to really stretch out there... considering it was at like 9.7% already... I don't see how another 0.3% unemployment increase would cause some "correction" (wtf do you mean by correction anyways?) in the economy.

Was 9.5%, now 9.4%.

QUOTE (impala454 @ Aug 14 2009, 01:32 PM) *
wtf do you mean by correction anyways?

QUOTE (dauss @ Jul 23 2009, 11:08 PM) *
I still believe there is a correction coming. We almost had one if it dropped 10%

Fairly general term of the correction of an index. Just google "market correction" and read the first result.

QUOTE (impala454 @ Aug 14 2009, 01:32 PM) *
This is not a quantity. See last statement.

Read my statement. You want a quantity, well, there isn't one. No one in the entire world can quantify how XXX economy reading is going to be posted, . You should get a hold of RealtyTrac and see if they can quantify how many foreclosures there will be next month. They won't be able to because they don't know.

You want me to tell the future? Guess what, I can't.
QUOTE (dauss @ May 15 2009, 01:38 PM) *
This is what I believe and I can't predict the future

If I could, I wouldn't be working. Here's a shocker, you can't tell the future either.

I have no desire for the stock markets to tank. Especially if the Dow hits 10k, I'll be going on a 5 week tour of South America and the Galapagos Islands.

With the how the economy is doing overall, the stock markets are rebounding after a horrific tumble. Though volatility has dropped, two phases of fear have dominated the market in the last 12 months. The first was the fear of losing it all, and then dumping your positions. Now the fear is missing out on all the gains and increasing your positions in the market. Today is a good example, the American consumer and their sentiment will need to improve before the economy improves, especially if 2/3 of our GDP is consumer spending.

So, years from now when I look back on the markets, and they didn't test the bottom we saw in March 2009, well then, that is wonderful news and I was wrong. However, if the opposite happened, I'll probably ask you how your humble pie is tasting.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #131172 · Replies: 31 · Views: 40,137

dauss
Posted on: Aug 14 2009, 08:28 AM





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Unfortunately I'm not smart enough to know what will happen to the market or economy. In fact, no one in the world is smart enough to know that. Analysts that do have a consensus about economic numbers don't get it right, and they do that for a living. I do this as a hobby.

So, the economy has further down to go, this is what I think will happen.
Unemployment will hit at least 10%.
Foreclosures will continue to rise.
Next quarter, more companies will post losses than this past quarter.
Home prices will continue to fall.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #131160 · Replies: 31 · Views: 40,137

dauss
Posted on: Aug 13 2009, 08:42 PM





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Unfortunately things haven't gone from "less bad" to good. It's gone from "bad" to "less bad" to “bad" to "less bad". I still see no signs of consistent improvement. In the past, the recovery of the economy lags behind what the stock market does, so it could be on its way to recovery.

So, with the Fed's pronouncement yesterday that the recession is winding down and that they would keep the interest rates unchanged, the markets yesterday posted large gains. Today, however, retail sales were expected to rise 0.8%. In fact it fell 0.1%. Even with bigger pay checks from the stimulus money and the cash for clunkers program, people are still holding back purchases. Walmart, even though they beat expectations, their sales and revenues fell in the last quarter. They were still profitable, which they attribued to cost cutting. Also today's release from RealtyTrac Inc. showed that 360,149 properties received a default or auction notice or were seized last month. The 3rd record set in 5 months. Fine, unemployment is down 0.1%, but it isn't because of hiring, but people giving up the search for jobs. Today the release this week's unemployment numbers. An unexpected rise in initial unemployment claims isn't "less bad" but actually worsened over last week. A drop in people receiving unemployment benefits doesn't mean that companies are hiring, but that their benefits are expiring. There is good news overseas though, Germany and France appears to have come out of the recession, posting a 0.3% gain in GDP this quarter.

I think the economy has further down to go, whether that is reflected in the stock markets is unknown.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #131153 · Replies: 31 · Views: 40,137

dauss
Posted on: Aug 2 2009, 10:18 PM





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Sure there are political issues and that people have their favorite beers, but it was a great opportunity for the craft beer industry to pounce and plug the only segment of the alcoholic beverage industry that is still experiencing double digit percentage growth. No losers here, steady stream of tax revenue and growth of an American industry.

QUOTE (Seeker @ Jul 30 2009, 04:38 PM) *
if there was an actual good american beer then maybe they would have chosen an american beer

samuel adams tastes like the sweat off my nutsack

There are plenty of world class American beers. You just haven't discovered them. Also, Boston Beer has over 20+ styles of beer that they release regularly throughout the year. That doesn't even take into account the numerous "one-off" brews that they have every year. Which one tastes like the sweat off your nutsack? It doesn't sound like you've had them all.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #130973 · Replies: 14 · Views: 6,342

dauss
Posted on: Jul 30 2009, 04:27 PM





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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124891169018991961.html
QUOTE
The president's plan to toss back a few cold ones with some high-profile guests at the White House has the American beer industry hopping mad.

This afternoon, Henry Louis Gates Jr., the Harvard professor and race-relations expert, and James Crowley, the police sergeant who controversially arrested Mr. Gates, are to stop by for a round of brews that President Barack Obama hopes will promote racial comity.

The meeting is raising some sensitive issues, such as: What kind of beer?

Late Wednesday, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs hinted the presidential cooler will likely be stocked with what he understood to be the two guests' own personal favorites -- Red Stripe and Blue Moon.

"The president will drink Bud Light," Mr. Gibbs added.

The problem is that all three beers are products of foreign companies. Red Stripe is brewed by London-based Diageo PLC. Blue Moon is sold by a joint venture in which London-based SABMiller has a majority stake.

And Bud Light? It is made by Anheuser-Busch -- which is now known as Anseuser-Busch InBev NV after getting bought last year by a giant Belgian-Brazilian company.

Among rival brewers, the news fell flat. "We would hope they would pick a family-owned, American beer to lubricate the conversation," said Bill Manley, a spokesman for the Sierra Nevada Brewing Co., a California-based brewer that happens to be family-owned.

Jim Koch, founder of Boston Beer Co., which brews Samuel Adams, decried "the foreign domination of something so basic and important to our culture as beer."

Genesee Brewery, Rochester, N.Y., released a statement congratulating the president for having beer at the meeting but adding: "We just hope the next time the President has a beer, he chooses an American beer, made by American workers, and an American-owned brewery like Genesee."

Richard Neal, a Massachusetts Congressman who has also written the White House amid the beer ferment, also hopes the meeting will promote beer-drinking nationalism. In a not-so-subtle dig at Bud, he said he knew he and the president "both share a common interest in fostering the success of American-headquartered companies."

In a statement, David Peacock, president of Anheuser-Busch, said the company "would be proud if Budweiser, Bud Light or any of our beers" is served at the White House meeting. A spokesman for the joint venture that sells Blue Moon said the company is happy it is being considered. Diageo declined to comment.



It all started about two weeks ago when Sgt. Crowley, who is white, arrested Mr. Gates, who is black, at his Cambridge home after responding to a call about a suspected break-in there. Each man accused the other of belligerence. President Barack Obama added fuel to the fire last week by saying the police had behaved "stupidly."

Seeking to calm the situation, the president then invited both men to the White House for a friendly beer.

For the past several days, David von Storch, co-founder of Capitol City Brewing Company -- which owns a brewpub just a few blocks from the White House -- has been lobbying the administration to serve his company's "Equality Ale."

"What better beer to have them drink than the only beer brewed in the District of Columbia, Capitol City Brewing Company Equality Ale!" Mr. von Storch wrote in an email he sent Tuesday to several White House staffers.

Kyle Watkins, a White House staff assistant who got one of the messages, emailed back that he would pass along the suggestion on but didn't know if it would go anywhere. Reached by phone, Mr. Watkins declined to discuss the matter.

In general, the White House strives to showcase American food, wines and traditional concoctions at official meals and parties. Sometimes, even menu items with a foreign provenance are Americanized. In the George W. Bush White House, a favorite chocolate dessert was referred to not as a French-style soufflé, but as a "chocolate freedom."

When questioned by reporters on Tuesday, Mr. Gibbs, the White House spokesman, tackled the beer issue head-on. "As I understand it -- I have not heard this, I've read this, so I'll just repeat what I've read, that Professor Gates said he liked Red Stripe, and I believe Sergeant Crowley mentioned to the president that he liked Blue Moon. So we'll have the gamut covered tomorrow afternoon. I think we're still thinking, weather permitting, the picnic table out back. All right?"

Dan Kenary, president of Boston-based Harpoon Brewery, said he wanted to make a run at getting some of his beer into the meeting but couldn't find any intermediaries with close White House contacts. "I think just showing up at the gate with a case of Harpoon would make them look at us funny," he said.

Maureen Ogle, author of "Ambitious Brew, The Story of American Beer," said that by holding the summit, the President risks criticism from groups working to persuade the public to drink less alcohol.

For instance, there is the Woman's Christian Temperance Union, which led the fight for Prohibition in the early 20th century. Rita K. Wert, the group's national president, said her organization is disappointed that the president is serving beer at all. "There are so many other beverages he could have chosen that would have served just as well," she said, mentioning lemonade or iced tea.

Sad that they couldn't have been drinking American beer. Also, fuck the temperance union.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #130921 · Replies: 14 · Views: 6,342

dauss
Posted on: Jul 26 2009, 02:39 PM





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Looks good. This is what I saw in NYC last month:
  Forum: Entertainment · Post Preview: #130836 · Replies: 5 · Views: 2,210

dauss
Posted on: Jul 24 2009, 10:24 PM





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QUOTE (impala454 @ Jul 24 2009, 08:42 AM) *
Dauss I'm sorry but your continued doom and gloom is silly. You're picking out tiny trends and not looking at the big picture. Wow you found a 28 day 7% downswing. You seem to be forgetting about the five month, 38% upswing. It went over 8,000 over three months ago and hasn't dropped under that since. You're citing all of these individual companies that really make little impact on the overall market. Those companies already made their small hit to the market many moons ago. It's real estate and the credit market that got us into this mess and they're the ones getting us out of it. Banks' profit numbers don't mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Their profits do not provide some direct correlation to their lending habits.

So I guess "Seem to be doing pretty well lately. Dow broke 9,000 today." is a long term trend?

QUOTE (impala454 @ Jul 24 2009, 08:42 AM) *
What kind of numbers would you expect to see to change your tune and admit that the market is recovering?

I would need good news, not news that is "less bad".
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #130814 · Replies: 31 · Views: 40,137

dauss
Posted on: Jul 23 2009, 11:08 PM





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So what? There has been a big jump in the last 7 trading days. What about the previous 28 trading days before July 10th when the markets stalled and the major market indexes lost about 7%? From the "Parallels between Dow and Japan" thread, I still believe there is a correction coming. We almost had one if it dropped 10%, but with the earnings season being unofficially being kicked off last week with Alcoa, there seems to be optomism. However, though companies are posting profits, there has been little to no revenue growth. The earnings results are skewed anyways. Analysts have slashed forecasts , and remember how aggresive the layoffs were at the beginning of this year? They were slashing a ridiculous amount of jobs, and these profits the companies are posting aren't from sales, they're from extremely aggresive cost cutting measures.

Ford, says they made profit because of their debt reduction, but would have lost money if it didn't happen.
Citigroup says they made profit because of their sale of Smith Barney, but would have posted a loss otherwise.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase posted profit because they took risky bets on the market, but their losses from defaults keep rising. If the market doesn't add on another huge gain over next quarter, these guys will probably lose money.
Morgan Stanley who weren't as aggresive as GS or JPM posted a loss.
CIT Group nearly went bankrupt because they were almost going to be insolvent and possibly bringing down hundreds of thousands of businesses because their request for TARP money was denied. Luckily a $3 billion deal with bondholders allowed them to continue to operate.


Small example, but none of these are showing signs of recovery. It's easy to beat analyst forecasts when the bar has been set so low.

That being said, I have been over 90% liquid for many months now. I still see the the current price of the market as unsustainable, and see a correction coming. However, with the stalled market from all of June to the first week and a half of July, I saw it fit to slowly enter the market again. I'm not picking out specific stocks now, because it is still too risky, but sticking with ETFs for now. On July 9th, I bought some QQQQ, the Powershares QQQ ETF that follows the Nasdaq.
Obviously I can't show you all of it, but:
Symbol, description of security, shares bought, current price, current value, day change($0.00 because it's past midnight), cost basis, Gain/loss(unrealized).

Not bad for 10 trading days.

Fine, current home sales are up, because they're dirt cheap, 30 yr mortgage has fallen some, foreclosures are still on the rise, and the tax credits to buy a house probably played a role, but that seems to be the big news for July 23. Jobless claims numbers are still skewed from the Chyrsler and GM bankruptcy, so although it has been dropping for the past few weeks, we'll likely to see new jobless claims rise back up to 600k+ once the seasonal adjustments catch up. Microsoft, American Express, and Amazon.com have posted some poor results, that are way off of analyst estimates. We'll see how the consumer sentiment index(consensus is a drop) and other relevant news(if any) will be able to buoy the markets tomorrow after getting poor results from those 3 giants.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #130749 · Replies: 31 · Views: 40,137

dauss
Posted on: Jul 5 2009, 02:42 PM





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Warning label is on the bottle. It's ok after they're 1 years of age.
  Forum: Off-Topic · Post Preview: #130380 · Replies: 7890 · Views: 835,956

dauss
Posted on: Jun 29 2009, 03:07 PM





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QUOTE (jonathan83 @ Jun 28 2009, 10:35 AM) *
geez..that is strange. both pretty young and so random. wonder what happened to him? CNN talked about his plane taking a hard landing on saturday, but not sure if there's any connection there.

I thought celebs were supposed to die in threes...Leave it to Billy to throw in one more absolutely free!
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #130246 · Replies: 38 · Views: 4,580

dauss
Posted on: Jun 26 2009, 12:52 PM





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I like "Due to the fact that Michael Jackson is 99% plastic, he will be melted down into Legos so little kids can play with him for a change."
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #130124 · Replies: 38 · Views: 4,580

dauss
Posted on: Jun 3 2009, 03:44 PM





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QUOTE (dauss @ May 17 2009, 08:23 PM) *
I believe that it will go back under 6500 again.

I can no longer stand by this statement. The DJIA composition changes rarely, but come June 8th, in less than 2 years it will have switched out 5 companies that comprise the index. With the removal of AIG last year and the removal of Citigroup coming up, the financial sector will be underweighted.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #129781 · Replies: 25 · Views: 3,802

dauss
Posted on: May 31 2009, 10:03 PM





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I've read that fasting once a week is quite beneficial. It is suppose to help increase the efficiency on how calories are absorbed and used by your body, and adapting to eating less food to sustain yourself.
  Forum: Health, Fitness, & Food · Post Preview: #129635 · Replies: 17 · Views: 5,831

dauss
Posted on: May 19 2009, 09:46 PM





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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Senate-OKs-b...7858.html?.v=27
QUOTE
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Senate voted overwhelmingly on Tuesday to rein in credit card rate increases and excessive fees, hoping to give voters some breathing room amid a recession that has left hundreds of thousands of Americans jobless or facing foreclosure.

The House was on track to pass the measure as early as Wednesday, paving the way for President Barack Obama to see the bill on his desk by week's end.

"This is a victory for every American consumer who has ever suffered at the hands of a credit card company," said Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., chairman of the Banking Committee. The bill passed the Senate 90-5.

If enacted into law as expected, the bill woul give the credit card industry nine months to change the way it does business: Lenders would have to post their credit card agreements on the Internet and let customers pay their bills online or by phone without an added fee. They'd also have to give consumers a chance to spare themselves from over-the-limit fees and provide 45 days notice and an explanation before interest rates are increased.

Some of these changes are already on track to take effect in July 2010, under new rules being imposed by the Federal Reserve. But the Senate bill would put these changes into law and go further in restricting the types of bank fees and who can get a card.

For example, the Senate bill requires those under 21 who seek a credit card to prove first that they can repay the money or that a parent or guardian is willing to pay off their debt if they default.

Bankers warned the measure would restrict credit at a time when Americans need it most. They defended their existing interest rates and fees on grounds that their business -- lending money to consumers with no collateral and little more than a promise to pay it back -- is very risky.

"What has been a short-term revolving unsecured loan will now become a medium-term unsecured loan, which is significantly more risky," said Edward Yingling, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association.

"It is a fundamental rule of lending that an increase in risk means that less credit will be available and that the credit that is available will often have a higher interest rate," Yingling added.

Voting against the Senate measure were GOP Sens. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Robert Bennett of Utah, Jon Kyl of Arizona and John Thune of South Dakota, as well as Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota.

But other senators didn't want to face voters in the 2010 election without proof that they are listening to constituents crushed by foreclosure rates and joblessness. Recent reports show that the number of foreclosures jumped 32 percent in April compared with the same month last year, while the jobless rate that month rose to 8.9 percent.

The legislation would not cap interest rates as some lawmakers had hoped. It also wouldn't prevent lenders from finding new ways to drain customers' bank accounts or keep consumers from spending money they don't have.

But it would give spenders more flexibility and outlaw many of the surprise costs associated with credit cards at a time when money is tight in most households. For example, under the bill, a cardholder would have to opt to be allowed to go over a credit limit. If customers don't agree and the bank authorizes a charge that would push them over their limit, the lender couldn't levy an over-limit fee.

Another boon for consumers is limiting a practice known as "universal default," when a lender sharply increases a cardholder's interest rate on an existing balance because the customer is late paying that bill or other, unrelated bills. Under the new legislation, a customer would have to be more than 60 days behind on a payment before seeing a rate increase on an existing balance.

Even then, the credit card company would be required to restore the previous, lower rate after six months if the cardholder pays the minimum balance on time.

House Democratic leaders said they planned to move quickly. Last month, the House approved, by 357-70, a similar credit card bill by Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y.

Complicating the issue somewhat was a measure added to the Senate bill that would allow people to carry loaded guns in national parks and wildlife refuges. That provision, sponsored by Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., passed, 67-29.

House Democratic Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland told reporters on Tuesday that the House might vote separately on the gun proposal so as not to bog down the credit card overhaul.

If the two bills are passedNo doubt that you guys have seen this, credit card reform. Aimed at stopping abusive policies that credit card companies force onto their customers. Good for those who have credit card debt and are getting hammered with so much interest that they cannot pay their balances down. However, with the high unemployment and more people defaulting on their credit card, the credit card companies are losing revenue. AXP had offered money to certain to close their accounts after they paid their balance in full to get rid of some of the riskier customers. A lot of other credit companies have taken a large chunk of credit card limits and reigning in how much debt a customer can ring up. separately as expected, they would be rejoined before being sent to the president as a single bill, said Hoyer.

No doubt that you guys have seen this, credit card reform. Aimed at stopping abusive policies that credit card companies force onto their customers. Good for those who have credit card debt and are getting hammered with so much interest that they cannot pay their balances down. However, with the high unemployment and more people defaulting on their credit card, the credit card companies are losing revenue. AXP had offered money to certain to close their accounts after they paid their balance in full to get rid of some of the riskier customers. A lot of other credit companies have taken a large chunk of credit card limits and reigning in how much debt a customer can ring up. This is beneficial.

The flip side of this is for someone like me. It is unknown what will happen in 9 months when the new laws are in place, but a majority of the profits that credit card companies are those who carry balances and pay interest. I've never paid interested. I've always paid my balance in full and on time. I haven't had my credit limit cut yet on my credit cards, but I'm considered one of those "deadbeats" from the credit card company's perspective. I have gotten a free ride using their services, getting cash back, and no annual fee. Those who have good credit may see cash back rewards disappear, annual fees coming back, and the firms also might impose interest charges on purchases immediately, eliminating the grace period. That would really suck for me. The credit card companies will have to revamp their business model and find out new ways to stay profitable when their main source of income has more protection.

There could also be another benefit to this as well. Implementation could be a problem, but I think it will be overcome. Most businesses take credit cards, and the merchants have to pay a percentage back to the credit card companies for their service. There are strict agreements that prevent merchants from charging different prices on products if you pay with cash. You may have seen at a few mom and pop stores that will add $x.xx on top of whatever you are charging to a credit card or requiring a minimum charge just to offset these costs, but with this new legislation, merchants could very well discount purchases whatever percent if you pay with cash, and pay the full amount if you decided to use your credit card.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #129219 · Replies: 17 · Views: 3,387

dauss
Posted on: May 19 2009, 09:10 PM





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QUOTE (Dogmeat @ May 19 2009, 05:42 AM) *
As usual though this is complete political bullshit.

They pulled the EXACT SAME THING in 1976.

They did this shit to the US auto makers. Did it help? Not in the slightest.

So I guess the average mpg of a light duty vehicle in 1975 was 13.1 mpg. In 1987 the average mpg of a light duty vehicle was 22mpg. So a 68% in fuel economy isn't helpful?
source: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #129216 · Replies: 19 · Views: 3,200

dauss
Posted on: May 17 2009, 08:52 PM





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QUOTE (impala454 @ May 17 2009, 08:34 PM) *
It's not a cyclical anything... these "gains" are not really gains they're just recovery. This recession was due to the credit meltdown, so it wasn't something that's on some cycle that you can go back and find a pattern for. Just like the Sept 11th recession.

On September 29th, 2008: Dow fell 778 points, 17th worst percentage drop. Nasdaq had the worst percentage drop since the tech bubble burst in 2000. S&P500 had the 2nd worst percentage drop ever.

The last time the Dow staged a comparable drop was on Sept. 17, 2001, when it plunged 684(6.9%) points after the 9/11 attacks. It would ultimately bottom 10 months later, after dropping an incremental 15.5%.

Looking at the Nasdaq, it last staged a comparable plunge on April 14, 2000, as the Internet bubble finally burst. It would ultimately bottom 30 months later, after dropping an incremental 66%.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #129090 · Replies: 25 · Views: 3,802

dauss
Posted on: May 17 2009, 08:23 PM





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QUOTE (impala454 @ May 17 2009, 04:39 PM) *
So you believe it will drop under $6500 again? What do you mean by "whatever it may be, is unsustainable?"

I believe that it will go back under 6500 again.

Whatever this may be, refers to this 25%+ gain of the indexes. The gains we have seen is generally seen over 2-3 years of a good economy, for it to shoot up so high in less than 3 months is ridiculous. It is a bear market rally? Is it a cyclical bull in a bear market? We won't know for decades.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #129088 · Replies: 25 · Views: 3,802

dauss
Posted on: May 17 2009, 07:22 AM





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This is ridiculous. The improvements in processing power for a video card to play computer games have found another purpose. GPU computing has huge potential. Nvidia has developed CUDA, and having great success applying their technology for data crunching. Anyways, here is my progress with my folding. There are projects that are being run on networked PS3's running custom code and having the computing power rivaling super computers.

Gigabyte 9800GT can finish a 768 point work unit in about 4 hours. I'm also running the standard CPU client as well, and my AMD Athlon x64 3800+(Dual core 2.0ghz processor) can finish a 638 point work unit in 38 hours. That's just crazy.
  Forum: The Nerdery · Post Preview: #129073 · Replies: 14 · Views: 3,970

dauss
Posted on: May 15 2009, 04:46 PM





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QUOTE (impala454 @ May 15 2009, 03:12 PM) *
The Dow seems to be fine, with that ~$6500 bottom only lasting for a few days.

These extremely short term observations mean nothing. Unfortunately posting this won't help my case, but we can just look back 6 months. The Dow closing below 8000, for the first time in since 2003, was on November 20, 2008. It wasn't until February 17th, 2009 for the Dow to close in the 7500 range again, and even lower later.


QUOTE (impala454 @ May 15 2009, 03:12 PM) *
The housing market isn't getting any worse, so I don't see how that could continue to affect anything. The banks that were going to take a nosedive because of the housing market have already done so.

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Hit Record for Second Month
So when foreclosure filings break two consecutive records, that's an improvement? Next week we'll have housing sales on Monday and housing construction numbers on Tuesday. A slowing decline doesn't mean improvement.


QUOTE (impala454 @ May 15 2009, 03:12 PM) *
I don't see the bankruptcy of Chrysler or GM having serious enough repercussions on the economy to drive the Dow under $6500. Their loss in value is already calculated into the current market. Their job losses have already been anticipated. It's kind of like how people new to the stock market think "ooh the new iPhone is coming out tomorrow, I should buy some Apple stock!" but in reality that has already been figured into the price.

The market has been eating dismal news for the past 8 weeks, yet the indexes are still holding onto significant gains. There was a lot of optimism, but now it is fading yet again.


QUOTE (impala454 @ May 15 2009, 03:12 PM) *
As far as citing Circuit City and Linens & Things going down... those are companies that had performed poorly for long before this recession hit. Circuit city had been operating in the red for nearly two years when the recession hit. If you look at both of the named stores respective competitors, sure they have taken a minor hit, but are still doing very well. Best Buy and Bed Bath & Beyond posted a 30% and 13% increase in profits respectively over the last fiscal year (during the recession!). So I think your comment that people are only buying the essentials is a little unfounded. I can turn on the news and see some reporter making it look like someone can barely put food on the table, but when I go into Fry's on Saturday afternoon and the line is still 50 people long with 15 checkouts running and big screen TVs making their way out the door like a herd of cattle, I get a little skeptical of the message the media is trying to portray.

Well when 1000+ stores close, business will be picked up from their competitors. The customers that used to shop at LNT and CC won't suddenly stop buying house wares and electronics. You’re also seeing the American consumer trading down for better value. Sales are down for JC Penny, Nordstrom, Abercrombie Fitch, Sears, Macy’s, mainly the mall stores.

So, your observation of what you have seen at a Fry’s store negates my comment about the consumer buying the essentials? My comment is based on net losses in the last fiscal year for these companies. Panasonic losing $4 billion(first loss in 7 years), Sony losing $1(first loss in 14 years), Hitachi losing $8.1 billion, NEC losing $3 billion, Toshiba losing $3.5 billion. So, if my comment is unfounded, why are they losing money when they had such great profits last year?

Consumers had about -6% saving rate for 8 years and now we’re seeing that rate at about 4.2% which was announced in March. That is a 10% swing, and considering how much of our GDP is dependent on consumer spending, I can’t see an improvement anytime soon.


QUOTE (impala454 @ May 15 2009, 03:12 PM) *
I think it's way past calling it a "rally". It's held onto the gains for nearly an entire quarter already.

In the past, these bear market rallies(or perhaps this is a cyclical bull) have see resistance between the 50-70 day range of trading. Today is day 49. I can't predict the future, but I believe that the bottom will be tested again, and that whatever this may be, is unsustainable.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #129054 · Replies: 25 · Views: 3,802

dauss
Posted on: May 15 2009, 01:38 PM





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QUOTE (impala454 @ Apr 2 2009, 10:59 PM) *
What makes you think so?

No one has tackled this yet, so I'm going to give it a shot. This is what I believe and I can't predict the future, but this is what leads me to believe that the Dow will be testing a new bottom before this recession over. When will we know if March 9th was the bottom of the recession? Probably in 30 years from now after we have studied the data for years.

Why are we here in the first place? The main cause that started this whole cascade across the economy is the housing market. Sure inventory may be going down, housing starts are improving, but home prices are still falling in a majority of the markets. Thousands are "underwater" on their mortgage, and even if they refinance, they may still have to refinance once again later down the road.

The results from the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (aka the "bank stress tests") have revealed in essence, that 10 of the 19 banks tests are insolvent. Propping up these "zombie" banks is exactly what Japan has done and we are well on our way to a “lost decade”. These banks need to fail. With the new Mark to Market rules which allow banks to decide a value to their assets, it has helped banks post up better results than expected, however it is unsustainable. Another thing is that the results from the stress test (BoA needing $33.9 billion, Citigroup needing $5.5 billion, etc) is that the capital requirements suggest that the amount of money needed will help sustain the bank until the end of 2009. Who knows what will happen in 2010.

With the bankruptcy of Chrysler and most likely that GM will follow, will have serious repercussions throughout the entire economy. Chrysler to slash nearly 800 dealerships, and GM axing another 1100. GM to idle their plants for at least a month to reduce inventory, no good new here either. Propping up these dealerships is also a terrible idea because that isn’t the way that capitalism works. Inefficient companies fail, and better more efficient companies take their place.

The unemployment rate is still on the rise. With the latest numbers that just came out, is showing that the number of layoffs are slowing, however the number of new people wanting to collect employment rose, and the number of people collecting it now has set the 15th straight monthly record. We are finding out that this recession is hurting a lot of people, and Americans are saving more money than ever before. Linens and Things and Circuit City are no longer around, and the discount retailers are now finding more business, but people are only buying the necessities. I believe back in February when the unemployment was still 7.x%, if you had factored in all the people who have jobs, but aren’t getting enough hours and looking for another job, the real unemployment rate would have been over 14%. With employment still on the rise, it will make it more difficult for people to pay their mortgage on time and could see more foreclosures.

With the economy in severe contraction, inflation may not be a problem, even seeing some signs of deflation, but when the economy does improve, all the stimulus money that was dumped into the economy so suddenly will need to pulled out as quickly or we’ll suffer hyper inflation.

This latest rally, which is holding on to the gains since March 9th, but there have been so many “Bear Market Rallies” of 30% or more over the decades, they only to find the bottom to be tested again and again, not recovering for at least several years later. The explosion in the markets could just be buyers now finally getting back in because stock prices are “fair value”. However, even though the US markets have gained 30%+ from the bottom back in early March, other markets have seen 50% improvements.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #129050 · Replies: 25 · Views: 3,802

dauss
Posted on: May 10 2009, 07:15 PM





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It's a comedy show. Oh, and:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/27/c...v_n_191899.html
QUOTE
This study investigated biased message processing of political satire in The Colbert Report and the influence of political ideology on perceptions of Stephen Colbert. Results indicate that political ideology influences biased processing of ambiguous political messages and source in late-night comedy. Using data from an experiment (N = 332), we found that individual-level political ideology significantly predicted perceptions of Colbert's political ideology. Additionally, there was no significant difference between the groups in thinking Colbert was funny, but conservatives were more likely to report that Colbert only pretends to be joking and genuinely meant what he said while liberals were more likely to report that Colbert used satire and was not serious when offering political statements. Conservatism also significantly predicted perceptions that Colbert disliked liberalism. Finally, a post hoc analysis revealed that perceptions of Colbert's political opinions fully mediated the relationship between political ideology and individual-level opinion.

Unfortunately I don't have access to the whole report, because I'm in school anymore and do not have access to those databases.
  Forum: News, Politics, & Religion · Post Preview: #128812 · Replies: 11 · Views: 2,384

dauss
Posted on: May 8 2009, 11:34 PM





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Seriously. The definition of bacon is, side of pork cured and smoked. That "turkey bacon" should be renamed to "bacon style turkey".

I like http://www.bacontoday.com
  Forum: Off-Topic · Post Preview: #128739 · Replies: 16 · Views: 3,460

dauss
Posted on: May 8 2009, 04:45 PM





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QUOTE (Sentinel23 @ May 8 2009, 11:37 AM) *
Does anyone else here like bacon with PB?

Lol, that discussion came up on another forum I frequent. I made one, it was tasty.
  Forum: Off-Topic · Post Preview: #128719 · Replies: 16 · Views: 3,460

dauss
Posted on: May 1 2009, 09:53 PM





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They make a DVI to HDMI adapter.
  Forum: Entertainment · Post Preview: #128482 · Replies: 18 · Views: 3,221

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