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[impala454]

Seem to be doing pretty well lately. Dow broke 9,000 today. Lookin pretty good and starting to seem like this will end up being one of the shorter recessions, albeit probably one of the most hyped.

[impala454]

Oh ok, I see, ignore the numbers or say "the economy lags behind them" when they don't fit your doom & gloom idea. A few posts back you were arguing about the market until you were blue in the face. I'm sure though that you're quoting some arbitrary number of properties defaulting (newsflash: that's been happening for 8 months) has much more to do with the state of the economy.

What in the world do you mean by "I think the economy has further down to go"?? Quantify this for me please so I can understand where you're coming from.

[dauss]

Unfortunately I'm not smart enough to know what will happen to the market or economy. In fact, no one in the world is smart enough to know that. Analysts that do have a consensus about economic numbers don't get it right, and they do that for a living. I do this as a hobby.

So, the economy has further down to go, this is what I think will happen.
Unemployment will hit at least 10%.
Foreclosures will continue to rise.
Next quarter, more companies will post losses than this past quarter.
Home prices will continue to fall.

[impala454]

Unemployment will hit at least 10%.

Way to really stretch out there... considering it was at like 9.7% already... I don't see how another 0.3% unemployment increase would cause some "correction" (wtf do you mean by correction anyways?) in the economy.

Foreclosures will continue to rise.

This is not a quantity. See last statement. Can't have housing prices properly even out without this occuring.

Next quarter, more companies will post losses than this past quarter.

This is not a quantity. How much more general can you get, geez. Quantity of companies which post a loss doesn't mean anything. Joe Bob's internet startup might post a loss, but do you think their loss matters more than some other company's? Uh, yeah.

Home prices will continue to fall.

This is not a quantity. IMHO this is still a good thing. Housing prices were out of whack for a long, long time. It was stupid for people to be paying half a million dollars for a 2 bedroom shack in one place, where in another place that same house would go for fifty thousand. It's a correction, that, combined with low interest rates is making housing more affordable, which is good for the economy.

[dauss]

Way to really stretch out there... considering it was at like 9.7% already... I don't see how another 0.3% unemployment increase would cause some "correction" (wtf do you mean by correction anyways?) in the economy.

Was 9.5%, now 9.4%.

wtf do you mean by correction anyways?

I still believe there is a correction coming. We almost had one if it dropped 10%

Fairly general term of the correction of an index. Just google "market correction" and read the first result.

This is not a quantity. See last statement.

Read my statement. You want a quantity, well, there isn't one. No one in the entire world can quantify how XXX economy reading is going to be posted, . You should get a hold of RealtyTrac and see if they can quantify how many foreclosures there will be next month. They won't be able to because they don't know.

You want me to tell the future? Guess what, I can't.

This is what I believe and I can't predict the future

If I could, I wouldn't be working. Here's a shocker, you can't tell the future either.

I have no desire for the stock markets to tank. Especially if the Dow hits 10k, I'll be going on a 5 week tour of South America and the Galapagos Islands.

With the how the economy is doing overall, the stock markets are rebounding after a horrific tumble. Though volatility has dropped, two phases of fear have dominated the market in the last 12 months. The first was the fear of losing it all, and then dumping your positions. Now the fear is missing out on all the gains and increasing your positions in the market. Today is a good example, the American consumer and their sentiment will need to improve before the economy improves, especially if 2/3 of our GDP is consumer spending.

So, years from now when I look back on the markets, and they didn't test the bottom we saw in March 2009, well then, that is wonderful news and I was wrong. However, if the opposite happened, I'll probably ask you how your humble pie is tasting.