Parallels between Dow and Japan Options

[Oasis]

People are saying the Dow will drop to around $4k...I disagree, I actually think it will dip below $3500 and won't recover. Things always turn around, but not this time IMO

Look at Japan, they hit $39k in 1989...they're still waiting for a recovery. Think it's at $7k now

What caused that meltdown? A real estate collapse and banks holding a mountain of bad debt. Sound familiar?

[impala454]

I think by the end of the year it will start recovering. No clue where rock bottom is though. IMHO this is a good recession so far. Should take care of and trim the fat some, get housing prices back where they should be, credit back where it should be (i.e. not given out like candy). I just hope I get to keep my job all the way through it (rooting for China to start launching people and start another space race)

Here's some interesting info. Most of us (well, all of us really) are too young to remember or care about past recessions. They're a normal part of our country's economics. Here's the list of past ones, and the duration (in months).

Sept. 1902-Aug. 1904 23
May 1907-June 1908 13
Jan. 1910-Jan. 1912 24
Jan. 1913-Dec. 1914 23
Aug. 1918-March 1919 7
Jan. 1920-July 1921 18
May 1923-July 1924 14
Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927 13
Aug. 1929-March 1933 43
May 1937-June 1938 13
Feb. 1945-Oct. 1945 8
Nov. 1948-Oct. 1949 11
July 1953-May 1954 10
Aug. 1957-April 1958 8
April 1960-Feb. 1961 10
Dec. 1969-Nov. 1970 11
Nov. 1973-March 1975 16
Jan. 1980-July 1980 6
July 1981-Nov. 1982 16
July 1990-March 1991 8
March 2001-Nov. 2001 8

So if you look at this, the average recession lasts about 14 months. with the last few fairly short ones. we've recovered 21 times so far, so I doubt this one will be much different. The Dow Jones as an index might not, but the country will be fine.