Am I the only one? Options

[Mommy]

Am I the only one here who feels that the media is largely to blame for our country being on the brink of a recession?
I mean, the way I see it is our country is driven by consumer spending. Yes, the current credit crisis is largely to blaim as well, but I think it was made worse by the fact that the media has been overdramatizing the current state of the economy which in turn worries consumers. Worried consumers don't make big purchases. I am so sick of headlines that read "Some analysts say our country is already in recession" and shit like that.
I'm starting to think that our country will fall into a depression, and the media will be to blame because consumers will pull their money out of banks, out of investments, etc.
Another thing, I think the federal gov't needs to back the fuck off and quit lending banks billions upon billions of dollars to stay above water. Our national debt has to have skyrocketed in the past 8 months. The only move I agree with was the move to keep Bear Stearns from collapsing.
And now this morning they unveleiled a financial overhaul for our economy... "The largest proposal since The Great Depression" according to media sources *rolleyes*.... burried deep within the story, they briefly mention that it will be held up in Congress for months, maybe even years.
Why does our economy rest in the hands of a bunch of bureaucrats in Congress whose knowledge of economics most likely comes from one college course they took as a freshman, some 20-30 years ago? I don't like it.
These are just a bunch of things I have been thinking about lately. Believe me, I am no economist. Last time I took economics was in high school, but I think a lot of these things are pretty obvious.

Thoughts on the media coverage? Thoughts on the Bear Stearns move? Thoughts on the new financial overhaul released today (links below)?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080331/fed_overhaul.html
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/31/news/econo...dex.htm?cnn=yes

[impala454]

Maybe there is some terrible problem and our whole economy is going down the toilet, but honestly I just don't see it. The only product I purchase that the price has gone up on a lot lately is gas, and the word in that industry is that prices will be dropping soon.

A friend of mine's dad is pretty high up at Exxon and I was talking to him about jobs at the various oil companies, he mentioned to stay away from Valero, as he said they pay a premium to steal employees away from Exxon, Shell, etc, but that word in the industry is that oil prices are about to start dropping, and they'll have to start cutting those jobs to get that money back.

I think the media is to blame for the general idea that our economy is so turrible and about to just take a huge dump and we'll all be poor and in Great Depression 2.0. I'd guess its just the general democrat pre-election scare tactics (yes the media is largely democrat). Everything always tends to be "bad" just before elections, so the candidates can say "I'll Fix ______ !" even if it's not really broken.

[blaarg]

Maybe there is some terrible problem and our whole economy is going down the toilet, but honestly I just don't see it. The only product I purchase that the price has gone up on a lot lately is gas, and the word in that industry is that prices will be dropping soon.

sure maybe the only effects YOU see is gas going up but...

How many people are losing their homes because they can't afford to pay?
How many people's homes are get devalued because of a slowing market?
How many people (personal and businesses) abroad are getting fucked over by the dollar devaluating SUBSTANTIAL percentages in the past couple of years?

I mean, I don't think the whole depression thing is valid, but it is troubling times and I think the term recession is appropriate...

<shrug>

[impala454]

sure maybe the only effects YOU see is gas going up but...

How many people are losing their homes because they can't afford to pay?
How many people's homes are get devalued because of a slowing market?
How many people (personal and businesses) abroad are getting fucked over by the dollar devaluating SUBSTANTIAL percentages in the past couple of years?

I mean, I don't think the whole depression thing is valid, but it is troubling times and I think the term recession is appropriate...

<shrug>

I can't answer your questions. I'd be interested to see the real answers though. I know I haven't lost my home, or had my mortgage go way up where I can't afford it. I know my home's value has not gone down, rather it's gone up. And as far as my dad's small business as well as his buddy's big business, and the business I work for have not been "fucked over" recently because of anything. It's just been business as usual. I'm not even sure what "fucked over" is supposed to mean in this case.

I'm not just brushing it off like there is no problem, but if it's so incredibly terrible and we're all so screwed by all these apocolyptic financial times, why would I not notice any of it in my regular old budget which involves a pretty wide array of the typical financial institutions we use as Americans? The only real hit I noticed was that my fidelity IRA only gained like 8% last year, when the year before it gained like 14%. Not a cause for panic IMHO

Which explanation is more likely:
1. This is truly a second financial great depression in our midst, and we better prepare for the worst by implementing drastic policy.
2. We're seven months away from a presidential election, which means candidates/media/anyone involved in politics has to paint the worst picture possible of our society so their candidate can tout their solutions to these "problems".

[blaarg]

And as far as my dad's small business as well as his buddy's big business, and the business I work for have not been "fucked over" recently because of anything. It's just been business as usual. I'm not even sure what "fucked over" is supposed to mean in this case.

Which explanation is more likely:
1. This is truly a second financial great depression in our midst, and we better prepare for the worst by implementing drastic policy.
2. We're seven months away from a presidential election, which means candidates/media/anyone involved in politics has to paint the worst picture possible of our society so their candidate can tout their solutions to these "problems".

Typical Impala response of 'if it doesn't affect me personally it's not a big deal.'

The GDP growth rate has been declining the past two quarters.
Home values in major cities have been typically been depreciating the past year. Here is Las Vegas for example:


US home foreclosures have increased over the past year.
The Fed has had to go to unprecedented measures to rescue banks.

But I guess I shouldn't trust the media where I am getting these because they are purposefully inflating the statistics or I guess, in your opinion, I shouldn't be trusting them at all BECAUSE they are statistics.

I just don't think you can say that everyone has seen "business as usual."

Now to your post...
For the first part: if you have employers working abroad (whether it is contracting or whatever) getting paid in US$, they are getting "fucked over." I've taken a 10% pay-cut just because of the dollar devaluating over the past couple of months. If you are dealing with business/employees internationally, there are major problems because of the dollar dropping in value. I mean it's pretty easy to see that if you are an American company with dollars and want to buy things overseas to make your products, you're purchasing power has dropped pretty considerably over the past year.

As for the second part: 1) I haven't heard any reputable US paper or channel refer to it as the second financial great depression (a UK one made it to the drudge). The impression I've been getting is that they aren't predicting the apocalypse is going to happen, they are just saying that it is a problem and we are in a recession, a place where we have been to before on many occassions. 2) THIS makes you sound like a conspiracy theorist that there is this pact to provide overinflated news, along the same lines as people who think Bush intentionally raised the terror warnings frequently right before the election in 2004....

EDIT:: And if your IRA was like mine, ten bucks said it dropped that 6% growth in last two quarters...

EDIT #2: I'm not saying it's a cause of panic "OMG GET YOUR MONEY OUT OF THE BANKS AND CONVERT IT TO GOLD IMMEDIATELY," but it is a fairly serious problem that needs to be addressed by presidential candidates, etc...

[impala454]

Typical Impala response of 'if it doesn't affect me personally it's not a big deal.'

If you noticed what I wrote, I claimed I was only speaking from my own experiences and also posed the question: if things are so incredibly terrible and we're on the virge of this economic apocolypse, why wouldn't I as a regular old citizen with money invested in many of the typical areas, see any real change for the worse whatsoever?

The GDP growth rate has been declining the past two quarters.
Home values in major cities have been typically been depreciating the past year. Here is Las Vegas for example:

You've gotta be shitting me. You're posting depreciation for a city where a 500sqft condo will run you $700k??!?? This is laughable.

US home foreclosures have increased over the past year.
The Fed has had to go to unprecedented measures to rescue banks.

This isn't because of some US economic apocoplyse looming, it's because of all the sub-prime home loans handed out like candy to children in the early 2000s. IMHO although those loans should have never been given, I think it will end up helping the insanely inflated home prices in areas like california, new york, etc. Why do you think places like Austin/DFW/Houston are getting huge blooms in population and have been nearly immune to this housing prices effect? Because people are taking that $400,000 of equity they have half way through the loan on their insanely overpriced house in New York and coming to Texas where they can get 3x the house that's 100% paid for.

But I guess I shouldn't trust the media where I am getting these because they are purposefully inflating the statistics or I guess, in your opinion, I shouldn't be trusting them at all BECAUSE they are statistics.

Yay you've stooped to the level of some others on here and started spewing useless bullshit insinuiations of me or what you think I believe instead of sticking to your argument.

I just don't think you can say that everyone has seen "business as usual."

I didn't.

Now to your post...
For the first part: if you have employers working abroad (whether it is contracting or whatever) getting paid in US$, they are getting "fucked over." I've taken a 10% pay-cut just because of the dollar devaluating over the past couple of months. If you are dealing with business/employees internationally, there are major problems because of the dollar dropping in value. I mean it's pretty easy to see that if you are an American company with dollars and want to buy things overseas to make your products, you're purchasing power has dropped pretty considerably over the past year.

How does you receiving a 10% pay cut indicate jack shit about your business? And why would you scorn me for presenting my personal experience (which I even admitted may not be the case everywhere, but wondered why I didn't see any difference personally) and then turn around and give your own as some kinda fuckin proof of your theory?

As for the second part: 1) I haven't heard any reputable US paper or channel refer to it as the second financial great depression (a UK one made it to the drudge).

I didn't claim to have read anything from any US newspaper that says that. see here.

The impression I've been getting is that they aren't predicting the apocalypse is going to happen, they are just saying that it is a problem and we are in a recession, a place where we have been to before on many occassions.

Well impressions aren't exactly some kind of hard facts up for debate now are they? Although further down your post here you seem to think it's "very serious". I guess "we are in a recession" < "very serious problem" < "great depression 2.0". Gotta love time wasted arguing semantics.

2) THIS makes you sound like a conspiracy theorist that there is this pact to provide overinflated news, along the same lines as people who think Bush intentionally raised the terror warnings frequently right before the election in 2004....

If you don't think that politicians try to make everything look bad before elections, you're smoking crack. Call it conspiracy theory if you wish, but they ALL do it. I'd call you naive before calling me a conspiracy theorist.

EDIT:: And if your IRA was like mine, ten bucks said it dropped that 6% growth in last two quarters...

Well its a good thing you have your money with an IRA then. They know how the market works and invest your money wisely. Don't sit here and talk to me about two quarters worth of market changes. When we hit a year or two of solid decline, I'll start to admit something is wrong. But you don't invest money for two quarters and then cry about it not growing and claim there's some terrible financial times ahead. Yes, there has been a decline over a few months, but you invest money over a long period of time so that you're immune to these short declines. One of my primary positions has dropped some yes, but it's nothing compared to the insane gains I've made over the 3-4 years beforehand. This same position also saw a 15% drop in Q2 2006, but it was just a blip on the radar in the grand scheme of things.

EDIT #2: I'm not saying it's a cause of panic "OMG GET YOUR MONEY OUT OF THE BANKS AND CONVERT IT TO GOLD IMMEDIATELY," but it is a fairly serious problem that needs to be addressed by presidential candidates, etc...

Well that's still where we differ. I don't see it as some serious problem. And it's funny that you should mention it as something the presidential candidates need to address, even though a couple paragraphs above you stoop to calling me a conspiracy theorist for suggesting that the severity of the problem was inflated by politicians and media for that very reason.