Fantasy baseball, draft strategy Options

[Oasis]

I think I've played two times in my life, won both times. I haven't played since because I found it way too nerdy. A game with no monetary stakes is pretty much a waste of my time and effort, and it shouldn't lead to fistfights (which it sadly did between two of my friends years ago). People were taking it way too seriously. And playing online against a bunch of people I've never met doesn't seem fun at all

My friend is playing this year, $300 buy-in, ten people, winner takes the pot. I'm going to be his "advisor." Basically I'll do all his research, use what knowledge I already have, and use all of the $125/year subscriber websites I'm a member of, and go in to nerd mode and crunch all kinds of stats and design a program that tells me who needs to be drafted where. For example, I've already tried to quantify the statistical dropoff between the top ten players I've ranked for each position. The dropoff between the best 2b (Chase Utley) and the second best 2b (I don't even remember who I had at 2, maybe Brandon Philips) is huge. But the dropoff between the fourth and ninth best outfielder is pretty small.

I've already created my own Top 250. there are a lot of variances between mine and say ESPN's list. The consensus is that Hanley Ramirez is a solid #2 behind Arod. I disagree. I'd have him easily as my #2 if Cabrera was still batting behind him. Marlins are my favorite team and I don't even know who the hell the cleanup hitter will be. Willingham I guess. I think his run production and RBI will drop off because he has no protection

I guess my question involves the actual draft and strategy. I've done a pretty good job ranking players, crunching numbers, and researching the shit out of everything. This draft is different than than the ones I've participated in because even though it isn't a keeper league, you can draft minor leaguers. This is where my knowledge comes in. I somehow doubt my competition is familiar with guys like Jay Bruce and David Price.

This is my strategy:
-The draft is 40 rounds, so each guy will have 40 players. Two catchers, 1b, 2b, 3b, plus two additional infielders, lf, cf, rf, and two additional outfielders; and 9 pitchers. The other 19 guys are reserves and their position doesn't matter.
-He has the third pick and the 18th pick. I want Utley at #3, because he's by far the best second baseman on the board. If Papelbon is available at 18, I want him, because the dropoff between him and Putz is pretty large. The way the league is set up, it seems to favor well rounded players. 5 tool guys as opposed to the Prince Fielders that will give you 50 homers and 0 stolen bases
-I do not want to draft injury risks. Pujols sitting at 3 is enticing, until you realize his numbers declined last year and he's one bad swing away from the 60 day DL

I want to build a reliable team that will stay competitive until mid May. That's where the fun starts, when the rookies start getting called up. Basically, a team full of reliable, injury free guys, consistent guys. I don't want the team to be very deep. My question is where do you start the "futures" drafting and start taking rookies? That's where I think the draft can be won - drafting guys (like Braun and Pence last year) who might not get called up until mid May, but when they do they'll give you .300/30/90/25 steals. That's a top 25 overall guy who you can get in the 34th round because 1. people don't know who he is, and 2. because you're building the team for the entire season, as opposed to opening day. Should I waste picks in the later rounds on guys like Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, Austin Jackson, etc, who won't even be useful to me until later in the season? Or should I draft all major leaguers and risk trying to pick up the rooks via free agency right before they get the call? It seems like drafts aren't won by picking the guys everyone's heard about, it's picking the guys no one's heard about before anyone else can get em.

[moebary]

I'd get Evan Longoria in a later round, he'll be the starter for the Rays all year and should give solid numbers. As for call-ups, I'd wait until right before they get called up.

[impala454]

yeah... I just let the damn thing auto-pick