What will happen, when the oil is gone? Options

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

Read a book recently that showed evidence of how the oil production has just reached its peak (or will very soon) around the world. Which means that we have pretty much gotten half of all the oil around the planet (and also the Easiest half to get out of the ground economically), which estimates show could be used up in as little as 10 years at current growth of demand. Oil and gas production already peaked in north america back around the 70's. Combine that with the fact that 60% of all Oil left is in arab countries (and a comparable amount of the natural gas)... and i guess my question is:

What does everyone think will happen when the oil supplies run out (or at least start to get so low that we can't viably use it as we do now)? Our entire economy is based off of it... from fertilizers made from natural gas (which enable our massive production of food, aka corn that would be used to make ethanol), to fleets of trucks that supply: walmart, target, ups, schools busses, etc. Not to mention cars.

Will the economy revert back to the 1900s of horse and buggy?

Will it basically be armageddon from all the countries fighting for the last supplies of oil along with deseases etc brought on by the inability to fight them w/o oil.

Will we still have most comodities just a big hardship from not having the transportation, and or alternative fuels to make up for the loss (aka nuclear, wind, water, solar)

or will we be saved by things that appear to be pipe dreams currently (like hydrogen fuel cells that would either require oil to produce OR nuclear energy which we dont have much of)?

or do you not see any problem at all for what ever reason that you should elaborate on?

[Seeker]

the gov might finally quit whacking everyone who invents free energy devices

[GOB]

coal

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

coal

so you think coal could be processed into synthetic oil on the scale we live on today and in the short time we have (in which right now we are doing very little of in terms of preperation to turn coal to a fuel for cars etc). And you think they could mine the amount of coal required, produce the tempatures and pressure required for changing coal into oil and ship it across the nation for a low enough price to not cost the consumer huge amounts which in and of its self would alter our living style?

While i agree we will use coal as a one of the fuel sources in the future, it is doubtful it could possibly replace the oil infrastructure we have today.


and in other words nothing will change because of the loss of oil in your opinion?

[Psykopath]

please...mother of GOD, not coal.
Burning that on a mass scale?! AHHHHHHHH THE ACID BURNS!

Seriously though, yeah...nuclear, solar, wind, hydro (obviously many of these are regional)...things like that will do just fine. Obviously it will take a feeling out period to get used to the technology, and to get used to Exxon-Mobile and others no longer having our balls in vices...

This post has been edited by Psykopath: Mar 18 2006, 01:25 AM

[Seussninja]

Hopefully it will be some sort of delicious FuturePast where we all carry swords along with our cell phones

[Psykopath]

Hopefully it will be some sort of delicious FuturePast where we all carry swords along with our cell phones

Now...Greg's got the idea!!!

[Seussninja]

Where everything is powered by our newfound magical abilities and then the earth gets mad at us and starts revolting and shit and we're like o hay sorry bout that and the Earth goes "hey man its cool just tone it down k"

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

please...mother of GOD, not coal.
Burning that on a mass scale?! AHHHHHHHH THE ACID BURNS!

Seriously though, yeah...nuclear, solar, wind, hydro (obviously many of these are regional)...things like that will do just fine. Obviously it will take a feeling out period to get used to the technology, and to get used to Exxon-Mobile and others no longer having our balls in vices...

well it almost goes without saying that those alternatives will be fallen back on FOR ELECTRICTY. But sadly there isn't enough nuclear power plants in the united states to produce the clean fuel (besides radio active waste which is actually small, you just need a place to put it) and it takes A LOT of fossil fuels to build a nuclear power plant.


PLUS that only takes care of Electricity... which i believe the number was that it only accounted for 30ish% of total energy consumption... the rest being cars with fossil fuels.

Which you could say that if we got the nuclear power plants up in time to put out electricity, then we could use that power for electric (battery) cars and the production of hydrogen.

I guess my question is Do you THINK we will be able to get this stuff done in a quick enough time period so that alternative fuels are actually available to replace oil before the entire economy shuts down from things like goods can't be transported to where they need to go because of lack of fuel (or exorbent cost of fuel)?


oh, and synthetic oil made from coal would effectively become high grade oil we use today already... so i believe the acidity of it can be removed... but the whole process takes energy to make coal into oil

This post has been edited by GhostofTHECHICKEN: Mar 18 2006, 01:40 AM

[Seussninja]

I think as long as we cling to the proverbial teat of mother oil companies we're doomed to drown in our own ignorance.

My hopeful answer? Yes, i think we HAVE THE ABILITY to do it.

Will we? No, we wont.

This post has been edited by Seussninja: Mar 18 2006, 01:43 AM

[Psykopath]

Hmmm, well then I don't know if we can necessarily beat a time period involving relative chaos (economic downturn and the like) at this point. Our dependency on oil is too great. I dare say that people are practically brainwashed into thinking that fossil fuels are the only means for transportation energy, and that "Hey, it'll never run out in my lifetime...so why worry??"

I think that we must start implementing alternative energy sources now so as to at least lessen the blow, so to speak.

[Seussninja]

lessen the blow or not, a punch to the face still leaves a mark, brass knuckles or not.

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

I think as long as we cling to the proverbial teat of mother oil companies we're doomed to drown in our own ignorance.

My hopeful answer? Yes, i think we HAVE THE ABILITY to do it.

Will we? No, we wont.

so you think america (as well as most of the rest of the world) will act to late to prevent a major disaster and we will be in for a long depression while we try to build this stuff we should already have up without the oil infrastructure to help us?

[Seussninja]

Personally i welcome our new robot overlords

[Seussninja]

so you think america (as well as most of the rest of the world) will act to late to prevent a major disaster and we will be in for a long depression while we try to build this stuff we should already have up without the oil infrastructure to help us?

This is an accurate assumption. Accurate as it may be however i don't see it as being a precise one. It will take something much more chaotic than economic depression to change our view of things.

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

This is an accurate assumption. Accurate as it may be however i don't see it as being a precise one. It will take something much more chaotic than economic depression to change our view of things.

yeah, its not precise because the strife will happen as oil runs out and or costs too much to use.

But i on the other hand wouldn't call it a economic depression as much as a just plain depression. Worst case scenarios would be places like las vegas, that can't produce food or water, wouldn't be able to get it transported in and would have MASSIVE de-population and the on set of starvation around arid regions.

And i think that most definitly would start to show people how our ways embraced by both liberals and conservatives need to be changed

[Seussninja]

yeah, its not precise because the strife will happen as oil runs out and or costs too much to use.

But i on the other hand wouldn't call it a economic depression as much as a just plain depression. Worst case scenarios would be places like las vegas, that can't produce food or water, wouldn't be able to get it transported in and would have MASSIVE de-population and the on set of starvation around arid regions.

And i think that most definitly would start to show people how our ways embraced by both liberals and conservatives need to be changed

It saddens me that it takes strife and suffering to produce results. And even then they aren't the results you may want. But i suppose if thats what it takes to bring about a change for the better i await to see how truly devastating it will be.

I just hope nobody says "I told you so" because I trust little to none of you (including myself) do your part to better this situation.

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

Hmmm, well then I don't know if we can necessarily beat a time period involving relative chaos (economic downturn and the like) at this point. Our dependency on oil is too great. I dare say that people are practically brainwashed into thinking that fossil fuels are the only means for transportation energy, and that "Hey, it'll never run out in my lifetime...so why worry??"

I think that we must start implementing alternative energy sources now so as to at least lessen the blow, so to speak.

yeah, they say that even if we were able to get every last drop of oil out of the earth (which is literally impossible and illogical because of the cost of it would out way the benifit) it would only last another 23 years and current rates of consumption growth


Seems like our life time.... sucks huh?

[Seussninja]

Someone please create Sentient Artificial Intelligence so that it can give us some fucking direction

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

It saddens me that it takes strife and suffering to produce results.  And even then they aren't the results you may want.  But i suppose if thats what it takes to bring about a change for the better i await to see how truly devastating it will be.

I just hope nobody says "I told you so" because I trust little to none of you (including myself) do your part to better this situation.

(oh the book i've just finished reading is "the long emergency" byJames Howard Kunstler )

which he goes on and on about how the simple fact of us living in suburbs and commuting (seemingly unnessesarily except to be out of the city) into the city has led to this addiction of our country on the fossil fuel industry.

heh, guess we should all start writing letters saying we are concerned... to the gov. or media... need a panic to get this damn thing turning the right direction. (like the oil embargos of the 70s)

[Seussninja]

(oh the book i've just finished reading is "the long emergency" byJames Howard Kunstler )

which he goes on and on about how the simple fact of us living in suburbs and commuting (seemingly unnessesarily except to be out of the city) into the city has led to this addiction of our country on the fossil fuel industry.

meh, guess we should all start writing letters saying we are concerned... to the gov. or media... need a panic to get this damn thing turning the right direction. (like the oil embargos of the 70s)

The minority of us in the Architecture community who give two shits about thei community are trying to devise a way to bring everything back to the center and try to downsize our reliance on the automobile. However, it seems for now Suburbia and the Big Brick Wall are holding their ground as the reigning dogs. There's too much fucking red tape for just a few people to make any real dent in the supreme sprawl.

And did the Oil Embargoes do anything really but make us cry until mommy gave us our sucker back? All there was was panic.

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

The minority of us in the Architecture community who give two shits about thei community are trying to devise a way to bring everything back to the center and try to downsize our reliance on the automobile. However, it seems for now Suburbia and the Big Brick Wall are holding their ground as the reigning dogs. There's too much fucking red tape for just a few people to make any real dent in the supreme sprawl.

And did the Oil Embargoes do anything really but make us cry until mommy gave us our sucker back? All there was was panic.

actually the embargos caused a ton of strife because of the price of gas soared. And we ultimately where able to over come it by opening up the oil from the north sea... instead of you know, trying to find stuff other than oil.

[Seussninja]

actually the embargos caused a ton of strife because of the price of gas soared. And we ultimately where able to over come it by opening up the oil from the north sea... instead of you know, trying to find stuff other than oil.

That's not on a option anymore though. Do you think we can pick a different brand of chips instead of a different flavor? Some people may not like the taste

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

That's not on a option anymore though. Do you think we can pick a different brand of chips instead of a different flavor? Some people may not like the taste

nah, what im saying is that since the panic can't lead to "ok ok, here is oil from somewhere else", it would naturally up the pressure on the government to make all the alternative fuels get their asses moving towards being able to ACTUALLY get off oil... not just SAY we are addicted... because one day we WILL have to go cold turkey, its just whether we can survive it

Hopefully people in power know all this crap already and have it under control... but it certainly doesn't look like it.

[Seussninja]

nah, what im saying is that since the panic can't lead to "ok ok, here is oil from somewhere else", it would naturally up the pressure on the government to make all the alternative fuels get their asses moving towards being able to ACTUALLY get off oil... not just SAY we are addicted... because one day we WILL have to go cold turkey, its just whether we can survive it

Hopefully people in power know all this crap already and have it under control... but it certainly doesn't look like it.

I hope they do too, for the rest of us. I'd like to see some proof positive effort to move towards something else. Maybe i'll do a bit of research.

[Rocky]

halfway through the oil? well depends on how right they are but if we are only halfway man we got some time. hybrid cars are selling off the market for being as underpowered and expensive as they are. companies are making more and more because thats where money is going man. gas prices/oil will keep getting more and more expensive so more people will make the switch and when it gets real close the govnt will just tax the hell out of driving a regular car. nothing scary about a non oil based future. greedy oil companies will find a different kind of source/technology to exploit

- cathryn

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

halfway through the oil?  well depends on how right they are but if we are only halfway man we got some time.   hybrid cars are selling off the market for being as underpowered and expensive as they are.  companies are making more and more because thats where money is going man.  gas prices/oil will keep getting more and more expensive so more people will make the switch and when it gets real close the govnt will just tax the hell out of driving a regular car.   nothing scary about a non oil based future.  greedy oil companies will find a different kind of source/technology to exploit

- cathryn

half is based on whats in the ground... not what we will get out. It took around 1 barrel of oil to get out like 28 barrels in the past, now its around 1 for 2 barrels in the middle-east pumps and around 1 for 1.5 (or less) in pumps like what the USA uses. so its WELL under half for what we will be able to use

Plus you say we will simply "go with hybrids as the prices go up"

well what about the cars that aren't hybrids? how you going to get rid of them? no one will buy them, so you can't trade the old cars in for any new ones. which means everyone buying new cars with mostly credit because not many people have excess money of over $20,000

And not to mention that all goes with us still using fossil fuels to for the "hybrids". What happens when the oil is gone, or unavailable because of the fighting from countries (like china and russia) who are fighting for the same resources as us, and wont be using hybrids? All i know is i hope you are right and these "greedy" oil companies as you call them are there to SAVE US from this dependency of america on oil.

[rabble]

Nuclear power is incredibly safe. All the accidents that ever happened in a nuclear power plant happened when some idiot technition decided it would be a good idea to remove the fucking control rods...
Hydrogen power works too, we are on the right path to making energy and water (I think hydrogen cars make water as a byproduct) so that will be good.

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

Nuclear power is incredibly safe. All the accidents that ever happened in a nuclear power plant happened when some idiot technition decided it would be a good idea to remove the fucking control rods...
Hydrogen power works too, we are on the right path to making energy and water (I think hydrogen cars make water as a byproduct) so that will be good.

sadly nuclear only accounts for around like 20% of our power in the U.S. so not enough.

plus hydrogen cant creat hydrogen (like one fuel cell can't creat two fuel cells, more like two fuels cells for 1). It requires power to break the hydrogen from other elements and then to use it for the cells. It is a clean fuel (water by product) but hydrogen is a highly corrosive element which means it couldn't be transported around in our old gas pipelines because it would destroy them (also it corrodes part of the cars extremely fast too which means faster wear on cars) , which means billions in a new pipeline infrastructure. PLUS, oil is easy to transfer as a liquid. You can easily transport like 7 tons in one truck, BUT since hydrogen is the lightest element it takes up a lot of space. Which means it would have to be extremely pressurized in trucks, and even then it wouldn't hold near the amount as a normal truck carrying oil. Which means like 8x the trucks transporting a HIGHLY flamable fuel around the counrty. - yeah, MANY problems

[rabble]

which is why the have those hydrogen gas stations in california or something that run on "a garden hose and a solar panel"

Just transport the water and turn it into fuel where you need it. Put water to hydrogen things in the garages of people's homes. I read it somewhere tha some of the things that turn water into hydrogen can acutally be fit inside the trunk of a car. Maybe I'm wrong

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

which is why the have those hydrogen gas stations in california or something that run on "a garden hose and a solar panel"

Just transport the water and turn it into fuel where you need it. Put water to hydrogen things in the garages of people's homes. I read it somewhere tha some of the things that turn water into hydrogen can acutally be fit inside the trunk of a car. Maybe I'm wrong

takes electrolosis or extreme heat, both of which require large amounts of energy to free the hydrogen from water (Which freeing hydrogen from the water takes more energy than the actual hydrogen can produce itself). So even if you can get a small one, you still need the another plentiful fuel source to produce.

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

here is a story on the first gas station to install hydrogen pump. Notice how at the bottom they say, for saftey, they only refuel the station at night or weekends for safety concerns: what happens when all the cars need hydrogen instead of gas? Gonna take a lot of trucks to fill up the station... and won't be able to be done during only night.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6460036/

so i hope you are right about something simply using a garden hose and a solar panel... because doesn't look like anything short is a viable solution. hope im wrong though

[Mommy]

Dame mas gasolina

[rabble]

hey I didnt say I was an expert, I'm just repeating what I heard from this show I watched. So yeah, I really dont know, so dont get mad.

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

hey I didnt say I was an expert, I'm just repeating what I heard from this show I watched. So yeah, I really dont know, so dont get mad.

nah im not getting mad at all. Im just seeing if people think that we are in any kind of trouble.

I think we are unless we really get are act together... again hopefully im wrong about us not having are act together


this is reassuring though / sarcasm

This post has been edited by GhostofTHECHICKEN: Mar 18 2006, 06:34 PM

[TetraGrammaton C...]

robots

[Spectatrix]

robots

Pushing is the answer. Pushing will protect you from the Terrible Secret of Space™.

[pysex]

I think the countries that depend heavily on oil for trade will be more of a problem than the dwindling resources. How will they react?

Seems like it's going to give a good jump start to the nuclear energy industry. Then weapon development. Then the Cold War all over again. Then WW3?

[pebkac]

Honestly, I don't think there would be that much of a problem if the US wasn't so dependent on cars for everything.

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

Honestly, I don't think there would be that much of a problem if the US wasn't so dependent on cars for everything.

thanks for stating the obvious

[pebkac]

It's what I do.

[John6.7]

robots

http://www.robotcombat.com/video_oldglory_hi.html

[Hartmann]

Coal-to-Liquids and Ethanol... That's what will happen

Hydrogen is seriously a long way down the road.

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

Coal-to-Liquids and Ethanol... That's what will happen

Hydrogen is seriously a long way down the road.

So you think we'll be just fine or be in for a bad spell before we get that up and running, or a REALLY bad spell?

(Because all the evidence i've seen shows how woefully unprepared we are for oil to run out right now...with any alternative fuel)

[Hartmann]

So you think we'll be just fine or be in for a bad spell before we get that up and running, or a REALLY bad spell?

(Because all the evidence i've seen shows how woefully unprepared we are for oil to run out right now...with any alternative fuel)

What evidence? I think in the short run we'll be fine... I think that serious innovation will need to happen in the next 50 years.

You do realize that Montana and China are considered the Saudia Arabias of coal correct? Coal-to-liquids is cleaner than biodiesel, it's cheaper in the long run to produce and your engine does not need modifications. Right now the only thing standing in the way of heavy production of the stuff is tree-huggers who don't want open pit and strip mining to occur (which it won't).

Hell, they are even going to use the bi-product, CO2, to help produce more oil from "dead" wells. Shell and China are working on the first coal-to-liquids production facility right now and Montana is set to start one as soon as they can get enough public backing.

[Jen]

cow shit & ethanol

http://www.cnmpwatch.com/view_story.php?id=35178

Last I heard it was scheduled to be completed in late 2006.

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

What evidence? I think in the short run we'll be fine... I think that serious innovation will need to happen in the next 50 years.

You do realize that Montana and China are considered the Saudia Arabias of coal correct? Coal-to-liquids is cleaner than biodiesel, it's cheaper in the long run to produce and your engine does not need modifications. Right now the only thing standing in the way of heavy production of the stuff is tree-huggers who don't want open pit and strip mining to occur (which it won't).

Hell, they are even going to use the bi-product, CO2, to help produce more oil from "dead" wells. Shell and China are working on the first coal-to-liquids production facility right now and Montana is set to start one as soon as they can get enough public backing.

Meh, book that gives statistics (that i dont feel like looking up on the internet), bout each of the fuel sources. Doesn't really matter, im more just looking for what everyones point of view on the subject is (if the projections of the oil running out in as little as 10 years with current consumption is remotely accurate)

[Hartmann]

Meh, book that gives statistics (that i dont feel like looking up on the internet), bout each of the fuel sources. Doesn't really matter, im more just looking for what everyones point of view on the subject is (if the projections of the oil running out in as little as 10 years with current consumption is remotely accurate)

It isn't accurate. I believe the number you are referring to does not factor in new fields (which are being discovered everyday), increases in recovery technology (we can now pull 55-65% from a well), and fuel efficient cars.

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

It isn't accurate. I believe the number you are referring to does not factor in new fields (which are being discovered everyday), increases in recovery technology (we can now pull 55-65% from a well), and fuel efficient cars.

actually it does... takes into account discovery rates of new wells, efficiency of draining them, amount actually able to be taken out (since not every drop can be taken), and increase in consumption demands

(or at least thats what it says the info its taking for evidence says) Shows that most all estimates show how the oil allocated to the earth (taking into account the discovery rates that peaked long ago) has been used to about 50% remaining (1 trillion barrels currently having been consumed so far out of 2 trillion) Plus shows the evidence of how peak production for oil has reached its peak and has started to fall (or has been for a while, like the 70's for North American wells and such).

[Hartmann]

They said we reached peak oil in the 80's and people panicked. Turns out we hadn't...

Do you know who this paper/study was done by? I was doing some searching and all I have found is research done by the oil companies themselves, which I don't really trust. They depend on the fear of running out of oil to continue to be able to raise prices...

I am not saying we aren't running out, because we are, I just don't want to listen to a group of known manipulators (Exxon in particular)

[GhostofTHECHICKE...]

They said we reached peak oil in the 80's and people panicked. Turns out we hadn't...

Do you know who this paper/study was done by? I was doing some searching and all I have found is research done by the oil companies themselves, which I don't really trust. They depend on the fear of running out of oil to continue to be able to raise prices...

I am not saying we aren't running out, because we are, I just don't want to listen to a group of known manipulators (Exxon in particular)

book called "the long emergency" by James Howard Kunstler

if it wasn't late as hell i might crack it open to get its cites. But it goes over the former oil crisis of the past and how we simply started pumping from the north sea and how that basically let us develop a false sense of euphoria over the belief of if oil gets in trouble we can simply pump more... which today there is no new mammoth oil fields to be found (like you refered to new discoveries)... just the small ones that hardly can last a year if lucky. Goes over how all oil is believed to have peaked and even if saudia says it has excess capacity it is at 55% salt water mixture (from pumping in salt water to keep pump pressure up) and hasn't increased supply ANY of the times it has promised... only produced less.

im not saying the studies are 100% correct... just gives plenty reason why one should be concerned... hence the thread: just wanting to see what others know/ think

[woody]

we'll run out of oil, and no one will care

[TetraGrammaton C...]

i made an engine that runs on ether
it is circular and relies on revolution for lift
the center is a weighted chamber
that faces the direction of travel,
independent of the rotation

it is worth several billion dollars
whee whooo wheee