Week 6!, pick 'em Options

[jonathan83]

(just major games plus Big12 games)
Thursday
#8 Kentucky at #11 South Carolina

Saturday
#5 Wisconsin at Illinois - I'm gonna gamble and call the upset
Kansas at #24 Kansas State
#10 Oklahoma at #19 Texas - OU by a lot
#12 Georgia at Tennessee - Another upset
#15 Virginia Tech at #22 Clemson -
Colorado at Baylor - I think they can do it
Iowa State at Texas Tech - duh
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M -
#9 Florida at #1 LSU - If Florida would'nt have lost last week, this would be different.
#25 Nebraska at #17 Missouri -

[pysex]

SC
Wisconsin
KSU
OU
Georgia
VT
Colorado
Tech
OSU
LSU
MizeryU

Colt is gonna be a little crybaby at the OU game. If KSU can scare him then OU won't have a problem.

[Oasis]

Are you talking about straight up or ATS?

Kentucky
Wisconsin
K State
Mobilehoma. Luckily I've already given up on the season so I won't care that much. I almost hope Colt throws 8 picks so he's finally yanked for good
Georgia. They're 23-3 on the road under Richt
Clemson
Colorado
Tech
Oklahoma State
Florida. I might be going to this game
Mizzou

[cmac]

Kentucky
Wisconsin
Kansas (rivalry game. anything can happen. kstate is at home though. hmmm)
Oklahoma
Georgia
Clemson
Colorado
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Florida
Missouri

[blaarg]

can someone tell me how Kentucky got ranked #8?!?
I mean who did they beat to get there, like Louisville barely right?

[Oasis]

can someone tell me how Kentucky got ranked #8?!?
I mean who did they beat to get there, like Louisville barely right?

1. They have the best quarterback in the country

2. They've gone 5-0 in the SEC while other teams previously ranked higher than them have lost.

[koreanp1e]

Here's My pick

Kentucky
Wisconsin
Kansas
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Clemson
Colorado
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
Florida
Missouri

[schwab]

South Carolina

Saturday
Illinois
Kansas
10 Oklahoma
Tennessee
Clemson -
Colorado
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
LSU
Missouri

[Rocky]

TTU -25
Okla St +6.5
Cincy +3
South Florida...i forget...-14 ?
OU -11
Indiana -14
Auburn -7.5
Tulsa -3

[Aaron]

1. They have the best quarterback in the country

2. They've gone 5-0 in the SEC while other teams previously ranked higher than them have lost.

1. That's extremely debatable, especially after tonight's performance.

2. They weren't 5-0 in the SEC, they were 1-0 in conference play prior to tonight. Additionally, Kentucky hadn't played ANYONE ranked in the top 50 or 60 in total defense. They put up nice numbers against teams that are very bad defensively. Tonight they ran up against a top 30 defense and were exposed.

Anyways...

I'm 2-1 on the week so far... won two units on Rice +21, three units on South Carolina -4, lost one unit on Marshall to win against Memphis.. up 16 units (~40%) on the year, winning percentage is 55%.

I have two more plays locked in for this weekend but will probably be adding more tomorrow:

USC -39 vs. Stanford - Look back a couple of weeks ago when USC was preparing to face Nebraska. Remember what happened the week before the game? LSU picked up a bunch of first place votes in the polls after they manhandled Virginia Tech. What happened during the game? The Huskers got slaughtered. This week, the Bayou Bengals actually jumped the Trojans in the polls... imagine what they'll do to hapless Stanford at home. It's a lot of points, but I think the Trojans will try to send a message here.

Wisconsin ML at Illinois - I think there are two effects at work here: Illini’s win over Penn State is being overvalued while the Badgers’ close win over Michigan State is being undervalued. Let’s not forget, Penn State was in the game until the very end and probably would have won if dumbass Anthony Morelli hadn’t turned the ball over four times (three picks, a fumble) on their last four drives.

I haven't played these games but I'm leaning towards them:

Iowa State +25.5 at Texas Tech – I just don’t see how Tech can cover this many points against an Iowa State team that appears to have a fairly decent defense and an offense that can milk the clock (they ran over 100 plays last weekend against Nebraska). I could see this being a 42-20 kind of game, but aside from Baylor, Tech has only beaten three Big 12 teams in the last three years by more than 25 points (A&M ‘05, Kansas State ’05, Nebraska ’04).

UCLA -20.5 vs. Notre Dame – Why should I even write anything? It's Notre Dame... I might just fade them like I did Temple last year.

Others that I'm looking at based on suggestions from a buddy:
Ball State -13.5 vs. Central Michigan
Ohio -5.5 vs. Buffalo
Arizona +4.5 at Oregon State
Tulsa -3.5 at UTEP

[impala454]

i bet we'll cover the spread. the defense sounded pretty jazzed up in their first game without setenich. yeah it was NWLST, but still... we only allowed ~40 rushing yards (if you take out the 28 yd safety as an unusual play). this game will be a good pre-A&M test for the "new" D.

[impala454]

illinois is looking great vs wisconsin so far, unless wisconsin can pull their heads out, looks like we might have yet another top 10 team go down to an unranked.

[schwab]

illinois is looking great vs wisconsin so far, unless wisconsin can pull their heads out, looks like we might have yet another top 10 team go down to an unranked.

wisconsin is lucky to even be ranked this high...dodged bullets from UNLV, MSU and now illinois...just a matter of time

[impala454]

yeah... just more reasons why rankings are pointless at this time in the season.

[Oasis]

illinois is looking great vs wisconsin so far, unless wisconsin can pull their heads out, looks like we might have yet another top 10 team go down to an unranked.

You know what's hilarious? Wisconsin is actually a two point underdog in this game. When is the last time you've seen the #5 team in the country as a dog to an unranked opponent?

[cmac]

Kansas (rivalry game. anything can happen. kstate is at home though. hmmm)

yay!

does mangino get fatter every season?

[jonathan83]

You know what's hilarious? Wisconsin is actually a two point underdog in this game.

so why'd you pick Wisconsin?

does mangino get fatter every season?

seriously looks like humpty dumpty

[jonathan83]

i'm doing well so far. i got the illinois game, and tennessee is beating georgia 28-0!

[Aaron]

Fuckin' Ohio and Wisconsin...

[schwab]

i'm doing well so far. i got the illinois game, and tennessee is beating georgia 28-0!

so far i have all

[jonathan83]

i love upsets

[Oasis]

Turn it to Versus, immediately

[Oasis]

WOW

[Aaron]

Lost my bet on USC -39, but it was totally worth it.

[jonathan83]

what's weird is how last week 5 teams or so in the top 15 fell....
now this week, it seems like another 5 are gonna fall!
so far #5 Wisconsin, #12 Georgia, #2 USC, and maybe #1 LSU!

[jonathan83]

this was espn's prediction notes for the USC game:

After losing the top spot in the AP poll, Southern California looks to rebound against lowly Stanford. USC has won 35 straight home games and 24 consecutive Pac-10 games. Those streaks started after a 21-16 loss to Stanford in 2001.

so USC's home streak is over. started after a loss to stanford, and ended by standford.

[Oasis]

this was espn's prediction notes for the USC game:

so USC's home streak is over. started after a loss to stanford, and ended by standford.

Nice symmetry.

1. Ohio State
2. Cal
3. South fucking Florida

The next poll is gonna be really interesting

[impala454]

that friggin rules that USC got beat... I hate them. Oh and the cubs, they're eliminated too yay!

[jonathan83]

i was keeping up with the OSU-A&M game online, and ok...

why the hell did OSU go for a FIELD GOAL when they were down 4 points with 4 minutes left!?!!

that decision lost them that game.

[impala454]

i was keeping up with the OSU-A&M game online, and ok...

why the hell did OSU go for a FIELD GOAL when they were down 4 points with 4 minutes left!?!!

that decision lost them that game.

so that a field goal would win them the game. the decision that lost them the game was going full bore at A&M to block the punt and getting a roughing the punter penalty. that was downright stupid. they'd have had the ball with over a minute to go, and just had to get to field goal range...

oh well... A&M winning that game is better for our sake.

[Oasis]

Les Miles just made the dumbest coaching decision I've ever seen in my life

[Oasis]

Uhh. Nevermind

[jonathan83]

so that a field goal would win them the game. the decision that lost them the game was going full bore at A&M to block the punt and getting a roughing the punter penalty. that was downright stupid. they'd have had the ball with over a minute to go, and just had to get to field goal range...

oh well... A&M winning that game is better for our sake.

well yeah, the roughing the kicker sealed the deal...but with 4 min left and behind 4 points, you have to go for the TD. you cant put it all on the defense, its way too risky.

[impala454]

well yeah, the roughing the kicker sealed the deal...but with 4 min left and behind 4 points, you have to go for the TD. you cant put it all on the defense, its way too risky.

4 minutes is an eternity in college football, he made the right move going for the field goal. he proved it in that his defense stopped A&M and forced the punt. then he proved how stupid he was bringing the farm in on the punt.

[jonathan83]

4 minutes is an eternity in college football, he made the right move going for the field goal. he proved it in that his defense stopped A&M and forced the punt. then he proved how stupid he was bringing the farm in on the punt.

wait, actually it was 3 minutes left, not 4.

i disagree. 3 minutes is not enough time to 1) stop the defense in their first drive and 2) go all the way back to the red zone again and score.

[Oasis]

Les Miles is outcoaching Urban Meyer.

Dub Tee Eff

[jonathan83]

that was a crazy game. i was hoping LSU would get knocked off like everyone else. oh well.

[Jim]

Tech, yay or nay?

[Oasis]

Tech, yay or nay?

45-17. By all accounts, they dominated.

[jonathan83]

42-17, but Iowa State got their 2 TD's in the 4th quarter.

[Aaron]

Score was nowhere near as close as it looks... It was 42-3 through three quarters and then we put in our second unit on defense.

[impala454]

wait, actually it was 3 minutes left, not 4.

i disagree. 3 minutes is not enough time to 1) stop the defense in their first drive and 2) go all the way back to the red zone again and score.

how can you say that's not enough time?? it's exactly what happened... A&M was punting to OSU with 1:57 to go and OSU had a timeout left... 1:57 - the punt (which took 17 seconds) = 1:40. 1:40 + a timeout isn't enough time for them to get into field goal range?!??

I was glad to see the tech D looked decent... we'll find out next week for sure.

[pysex]

how can you say that's not enough time?? it's exactly what happened... A&M was punting to OSU with 1:57 to go and OSU had a timeout left... 1:57 - the punt (which took 17 seconds) = 1:40. 1:40 + a timeout isn't enough time for them to get into field goal range?!??

I was glad to see the tech D looked decent... we'll find out next week for sure.

yeah no kidding

lane is gonna be a good test against them

[schwab]

well i went perfect this week on these picks....do i win anything?

[jwttu]

yeah no kidding

lane is gonna be a good test against them

thats if fran uses lane, i'm hoping he has another miami gameplan where he doesnt even rush him till the 2nd half

[Hartmann]

I think the defeat of USC at the hands of Stanford, Stanford! made my weekend.

[schwab]

I think the defeat of USC at the hands of Stanford, Stanford! made my weekend.

same here

[jonathan83]

how can you say that's not enough time?? it's exactly what happened... A&M was punting to OSU with 1:57 to go and OSU had a timeout left... 1:57 - the punt (which took 17 seconds) = 1:40. 1:40 + a timeout isn't enough time for them to get into field goal range?!??

yeah i know it's possible, but you can't rely on your D to stop them as quickly as they did. OSU isn't that great... they just got lucky to be able to do so, then screwed up on the roughing the kicker.

[impala454]

heh whatever... glad you're not a football coach.

[jonathan83]

um, i think i know what i'm talking about. i've talked to a few football players who agreed with that.

down by 4 with 3 minutes left, you go for a TD. unless you really trust your defense and your offense really sucks.

heh whatever... glad you're not a football coach.

what would mike leach do?

[Aaron]

Watching Fran and Gundy coach that game was like watching two special ed kids play chess with casts on both arms.

[impala454]

um, i think i know what i'm talking about. i've talked to a few football players who agreed with that.

oooooooooooooooooooooooh you talked to a few football players woooooooooooooooooo

down by 4 with 3 minutes left, you go for a TD. unless you really trust your defense and your offense really sucks.

uh, he did trust his defense, and they did stop A&M, and they would have gotten the ball back with 1:40 left...

what would mike leach do?

he would have gone for it.

but that's not the point. i'm not arguing that you should always go for the field goal in that case, just saying you were dead wrong when you said:

i disagree. 3 minutes is not enough time to 1) stop the defense in their first drive and 2) go all the way back to the red zone again and score.

because this is exactly what f'n happened!

[Oasis]

Impala is 100% correct. The smart thing to do in that situation is punt. Especially in college where the clock stops on first down.

[koreanp1e]

I can't believe Heisman Watch still doesn't include Crabtree and Harrell.
I guess we need to totally annihilate aTm and kill mizzou to win the respect we deserve.

[Oasis]

I can't believe Heisman Watch still doesn't include Crabtree and Harrell.
I guess we need to totally annihilate aTm and kill mizzou to win the respect we deserve.

As much of a non Tech homer as I am, I agree. What Crabtree is doing is unprecedented. What Harrell is doing is unreal. 28 Touchdowns and 3 interceptions? Are you fucking kidding me?

[jwttu]

As much of a non Tech homer as I am, I agree. What Crabtree is doing is unprecedented. What Harrell is doing is unreal. 28 Touchdowns and 3 interceptions? Are you fucking kidding me?

but people will always blame it on the system. Also the Heisman is flawed, its mostly a popularity award.

[Oasis]

but people will always blame it on the system. Also the Heisman is flawed, its mostly a popularity award.

Every offense is a system. Do whatever it takes to get the ball in the endzone. Run, pass, tapdance, who cares.

Glad Tech's offense finally got from "gimmick" to "system" though. Huge step.

Who on earth is the Heisman candidate now? Matt Ryan or something?

[jonathan83]

oooooooooooooooooooooooh you talked to a few football players woooooooooooooooooo
uh, he did trust his defense, and they did stop A&M, and they would have gotten the ball back with 1:40 left...
he would have gone for it.

but that's not the point. i'm not arguing that you should always go for the field goal in that case, just saying you were dead wrong when you said:

because this is exactly what f'n happened!

well i talked to some guys who are on the tech team (and one of the guys i was talking to about this was an ex-nfl player), and so yeah...their opinion does matter to me since they know wtf they're talking about. they agreed that it was a weird call.

yes, i know it worked, and yes, i know you CAN do it in 3 minutes, i'm just saying that we were surprised he did that, since a TD would have won it, and it was risky to put it all on the D (especially theirs, which isnt so great).

[jonathan83]

but people will always blame it on the system. Also the Heisman is flawed, its mostly a popularity award.

yeah, nowadays, the Heisman is pretty much the best player on the best team in the country...so as long as you're not in the top 10, you're not getting the award.

they should be on the heisman watch though. harrell would've been already had we not lost to OSU. and when we beat atm next weekend, i think he'll be on there for sure, as long they keep doing their stuff.

they won't be on the list as long as we aren't ranked.

[Hartmann]

There has been talk about Harrell or Crabtree possibly making the Heisman list (would love to see it myself, both are unbelievable).

[cmac]

is there some unofficial list for this? i've seen both of them on a few watch lists. mark may said saturday morning before gameday that harrel was his number 2. i'm shocked that colt brennan is still being mentioned after throwing 5 int in one game against 1AA.

[impala454]

I hate to say it but no tech QB or reciever will ever get a heisman with our current offense. Kliff came the closest, but that's only because he was the first QB in our system. Don't get me wrong I love Leach's system, it's hella fun to watch, but you don't see it taken seriously all that often. It seems to be making inroads at a few other schools and you see hints of it in the NFL, but it's still widely considered gimmicky.

[Hartmann]

What are these people wanting then? The offense wins games. Yeah, we lose a few, but at least we don't run every chance we get or make it a battle of defenses ('cause yeah, that's fun to watch )

[impala454]

Well of course, I agree. It's just that 6,000 yds doesn't look as impressive when you throw 85 times /game. 200 yds + 3 TDs doesn't look as impressive when you throw for 600 with 5 TDs. I mean, it's impressive to me, but it's still a product of the system. That's why Kliff was in the heisman running back in his day. What he did hadn't been done before. But when the next several Tech QBs all get insane numbers, it doesn't help our cause (in the heisman area anyhow). I do hear a lot of good media press on Crabtree though, I just think as far as heisman goes he'll probably just end up referred to as another product of the system. He'll have to bring up insane numbers for us in order to get noticed for the heisman.

[jonathan83]

believe me, Harrell will get attention ONLY when we start winning. and i mean winning more than we have in the past. 1 or 2 loses only. taking the big 12 south, etc.

[Oasis]

I don't get why Colt Brennan is a Heisman candidate but Harrell isn't. Same offense, same numbers, and at least Harrell plays on national tv occasionally. Oh, it's cause people knew who Colt Brennan was before the season started

That could change big time when Tech plays UT. Use what you hate to your advantage - The media is all over UT's jock and if TTU beats em it will be seen as a much bigger win than it actually is.

[impala454]

the problem is we'll have more than likely already lost to mizzou. if we can beat mizzou on the road I think we have a serious shot at the big 12 south.

[koreanp1e]

Mizzou and Colorado will be a close game for us.
I think we will trample aTm and UT.
We will probably lose to OU but this also depends on how we perform against mizzou and colorado.
If we win both by big margin, we have a chance at beating OU.

[cmac]

If our defense really has drastically improved this much in two weeks I wanna know why it took so freakin long to fire Lyle?

[cupcake]

well we haven't really been challenged yet.

the first test will be this weekend.

[jwttu]

If our defense really has drastically improved this much in two weeks I wanna know why it took so freakin long to fire Lyle?

i think they didnt want to seem insensitive firing a guy under contract that was having major health issues with his wife.

I think they should have reassigned him way earlier if that was the case

[cmac]

well you could argue that okie state shouldn't have been a challenge either.
business is business. shoulda been done a long time ago. or lyle shoulda had the balls to step down or reassign himself.
hopefully it's fixed now.

i was looking at ncaa stats and we actually have better overall defensive numbers than a&m.

[pysex]

a&m will be a good test for our D...i'm concerned though...the game will be tough


texas will roll us

mizzou will roll us

oklahomo will roll us

[jonathan83]

if we can beat mizzou on the road I think we have a serious shot at the big 12 south title.

fixed

[impala454]

a&m will be a good test for our D...i'm concerned though...the game will be tough

nah... we'll roll them. if it was in college station i'd worry a little, but they suck on the road. and have had close calls with crap teams like fresno (at home even)

texas will roll us

did you see how bad their secondary was getting beat? don't get me wrong i don't think it's a lock, but honestly they aren't that good this year.

mizzou will roll us

i think this will be a tough game but i don't think they'll beat us that bad if they do. they haven't faced a pass offense the likes of ours yet. and they themselves are a passing team. the only thing that worries me w/them is they seem to have a fairly mobile QB, but hey we got our 'refreshed' defense... we'll see how they do.

oklahomo will roll us

well the game is in lubbock, and if we come into it 10-1 or even 9-2, it's a whole different ball game.

fixed

shit... have you seen the north this year???

[Black Bear]

I really don't see how Tech cannot win the south. I think they have a good chance of upsetting Missouri and taking the Big 12 this year. I truly believe the title is up for Tech to lose themselves.

[blaarg]

we suck.
there is no way.
we always blow stupid games.

[Black Bear]

we always blow stupid games.

That is what I mean by "the title is up for Tech to lose themselves".
As long as Tech does not do something stupid and blow a game they will be hard to beat.

[pysex]

it won't happen for tech...if anything this is a&m's year

[impala454]

it won't happen for tech...if anything this is a&m's year

you crazy

A&M started 5-1 and will most likely end 5-7 or 6-6. look at their remaining schedule bud:

@ TTU
@ Nebraska
vs Kansas
@ OU
@ Mizzou
vs UT

they'll be lucky to win two of these games.

[schwab]

it won't happen for tech...if anything this is a&m's year

are you serious? have you seen a&m play? obviously not....

[jonathan83]

you crazy

A&M started 5-1 and will most likely end 5-7 or 6-6. look at their remaining schedule bud:

@ TTU
@ Nebraska
vs Kansas
@ OU
@ Mizzou
vs UT

they'll be lucky to win two of these games.

this

[Rocky]

The UT game should be a near joke. It all depends on if the defense can ever stop FUCKING RUSHES UP THE MIDDLE.

Last year Tech was able to embarass a secondary that had 2 - first round draft picks. Of course the 2nd half had some solid defense by UT, but even with all of that in mind...

It was a similar scenario with OU as well. TTU really played strong the first half last year.


When TTU did beat OU in 05, they held AD to like 50 rushing yards until the 4th quarter when he went into ultra killer mode.


If anybody else watched the OU/Tulsa game, they saw that OU's pass defense isn't as scary as previously considered. Let's also factor in how dominant the Tech offensive line is in pass protection !


Tech will have to really fuck up to lose to UT this year.

I am still uneasy about Missouri, Colorado, OU of course. If they could just stop a rushing play every once in a while...don't even be a great defense - just be A defense !@!


Missouri last year was not a fluke , but Harrel handed them over 17 points within about 2 minutes of clock time...so that game was fucked from the get go. I honestly think with the power of this year's offense, Tech has a better shot overall with this game.

[pysex]

hey i hope tech does fine

but i'm not gonna get cocky just yet



if tech can handle a&m's rushing (like rocky mentioned) then i'm pretty confident we can do it...

if we fail, there's a good chance a&m takes south (however shitty that may sound)

[impala454]

if we fail, there's a good chance a&m takes south (however shitty that may sound)

there is no way in hell A&M will win the south. i repeat,

no

way

in

hell

[Rocky]

As the season was starting up, I was picking A&M as my South surprise winners.


But after a few weeks, and especially after seeing OU's Bradford play....those thoughts went away fast.

More than likely, OU wins........but really who knows. I don't feel comfortable picking anybody yet.